**Forecast model divergence is the main driver of the closely matched Polymarket odds for Cape Town's August 27 maximum temperature.** Short-range numerical weather prediction runs show a spread of roughly 19–28 °C for the day, producing a market where 23 °C leads at 32 % implied probability, followed closely by 24 °C (29.5 %) and 25 °C or higher (24 %). Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of northwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Some global and regional models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS variants) advect warmer, drier air over the Cape Peninsula, allowing greater daytime insolation and surface heating that pushes afternoon readings into the mid-20s °C. Other solutions emphasize increased cloud cover and earlier south-easterly wind shifts, limiting peak temperatures to the upper teens °C. Local orographic effects around Table Mountain further amplify small differences in wind direction and boundary-layer moisture. Recent observations add context: maximum temperatures earlier in August 2026 reached 27.7 °C on the 1st, while the monthly mean through late August has run slightly above the long-term normal of ~16 °C. With resolution occurring in under 48 hours, traders are weighting the latest model consensus and any 00Z/12Z updates that narrow the envelope around the 22–25 °C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on August 27?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on August 27?
23°C 32%
24°C 30%
25°C or higher 24%
21°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
5%
18°C
5%
19°C
5%
20°C
9%
21°C
21%
22°C
20%
23°C
32%
24°C
30%
25°C or higher
24%
23°C 32%
24°C 30%
25°C or higher 24%
21°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$149 Vol.
5%
18°C
$166 Vol.
5%
19°C
$10 Vol.
5%
20°C
$10 Vol.
9%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$6 Vol.
32%
24°C
$0 Vol.
30%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model divergence is the main driver of the closely matched Polymarket odds for Cape Town's August 27 maximum temperature.** Short-range numerical weather prediction runs show a spread of roughly 19–28 °C for the day, producing a market where 23 °C leads at 32 % implied probability, followed closely by 24 °C (29.5 %) and 25 °C or higher (24 %).
Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of northwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Some global and regional models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS variants) advect warmer, drier air over the Cape Peninsula, allowing greater daytime insolation and surface heating that pushes afternoon readings into the mid-20s °C. Other solutions emphasize increased cloud cover and earlier south-easterly wind shifts, limiting peak temperatures to the upper teens °C. Local orographic effects around Table Mountain further amplify small differences in wind direction and boundary-layer moisture.
Recent observations add context: maximum temperatures earlier in August 2026 reached 27.7 °C on the 1st, while the monthly mean through late August has run slightly above the long-term normal of ~16 °C. With resolution occurring in under 48 hours, traders are weighting the latest model consensus and any 00Z/12Z updates that narrow the envelope around the 22–25 °C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$341End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model divergence is the main driver of the closely matched Polymarket odds for Cape Town's August 27 maximum temperature.** Short-range numerical weather prediction runs show a spread of roughly 19–28 °C for the day, producing a market where 23 °C leads at 32 % implied probability, followed closely by 24 °C (29.5 %) and 25 °C or higher (24 %).
Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of northwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Some global and regional models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS variants) advect warmer, drier air over the Cape Peninsula, allowing greater daytime insolation and surface heating that pushes afternoon readings into the mid-20s °C. Other solutions emphasize increased cloud cover and earlier south-easterly wind shifts, limiting peak temperatures to the upper teens °C. Local orographic effects around Table Mountain further amplify small differences in wind direction and boundary-layer moisture.
Recent observations add context: maximum temperatures earlier in August 2026 reached 27.7 °C on the 1st, while the monthly mean through late August has run slightly above the long-term normal of ~16 °C. With resolution occurring in under 48 hours, traders are weighting the latest model consensus and any 00Z/12Z updates that narrow the envelope around the 22–25 °C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$341End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model divergence is the main driver of the closely matched Polymarket odds for Cape Town's August 27 maximum temperature.** Short-range numerical weather prediction runs show a spread of roughly 19–28 °C for the day, producing a market where 23 °C leads at 32 % implied probability, followed closely by 24 °C (29.5 %) and 25 °C or higher (24 %). Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of northwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Some global and regional models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS variants) advect warmer, drier air over the Cape Peninsula, allowing greater daytime insolation and surface heating that pushes afternoon readings into the mid-20s °C. Other solutions emphasize increased cloud cover and earlier south-easterly wind shifts, limiting peak temperatures to the upper teens °C. Local orographic effects around Table Mountain further amplify small differences in wind direction and boundary-layer moisture. Recent observations add context: maximum temperatures earlier in August 2026 reached 27.7 °C on the 1st, while the monthly mean through late August has run slightly above the long-term normal of ~16 °C. With resolution occurring in under 48 hours, traders are weighting the latest model consensus and any 00Z/12Z updates that narrow the envelope around the 22–25 °C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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