Current forecasts from Chinese meteorological agencies and international models indicate a likely peak of 36–37°C in Wuhan on August 27 under lingering subtropical high pressure, with mostly sunny conditions, light southerly winds, and only scattered afternoon convection possible. Trader emphasis on 37–39°C reflects uncertainty in the precise maximum, driven by variations in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island amplification at the official station, and whether any developing thunderstorms suppress insolation enough to cap temperatures below 38°C. High humidity supports elevated heat indices but has limited direct impact on dry-bulb maxima, while model runs show minor differences in ridge strength and steering flow that could shift the outcome by 1–2°C. Newer guidance expected from the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory in the next 24–48 hours will further refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on August 27?
38°C 33%
39°C 30%
37°C 25%
36°C 12%
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
2%
35°C
4%
36°C
12%
37°C
25%
38°C
33%
39°C
30%
40°C
5%
41°C
6%
42°C or higher
5%
38°C 33%
39°C 30%
37°C 25%
36°C 12%
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
2%
35°C
4%
36°C
12%
37°C
25%
38°C
33%
39°C
30%
40°C
5%
41°C
6%
42°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from Chinese meteorological agencies and international models indicate a likely peak of 36–37°C in Wuhan on August 27 under lingering subtropical high pressure, with mostly sunny conditions, light southerly winds, and only scattered afternoon convection possible. Trader emphasis on 37–39°C reflects uncertainty in the precise maximum, driven by variations in boundary-layer mixing, urban heat island amplification at the official station, and whether any developing thunderstorms suppress insolation enough to cap temperatures below 38°C. High humidity supports elevated heat indices but has limited direct impact on dry-bulb maxima, while model runs show minor differences in ridge strength and steering flow that could shift the outcome by 1–2°C. Newer guidance expected from the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory in the next 24–48 hours will further refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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