A broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea is driving unsettled conditions across Hong Kong, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance highlighting increased showers, thunderstorms, and southerly winds of 4–6 on the Beaufort scale for August 25. These factors promote greater cloud cover and convective rainfall that suppress peak daytime heating, favoring maximum temperatures near 29–31°C. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread around these values due to variable thunderstorm timing and intensity, which can locally reduce or briefly allow higher readings depending on solar insolation breaks. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty window, with probabilities clustered on 30–32°C outcomes pending the next model runs and observational updates from regional monitoring agencies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
31°C 29%
30°C 26%
32°C 23%
29°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
17%
30°C
26%
31°C
29%
32°C
23%
33°C
7%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 29%
30°C 26%
32°C 23%
29°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$194 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$209 Vol.
2%
28°C
$2,956 Vol.
3%
29°C
$270 Vol.
17%
30°C
$144 Vol.
26%
31°C
$102 Vol.
29%
32°C
$463 Vol.
23%
33°C
$576 Vol.
7%
34°C
$306 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$160 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea is driving unsettled conditions across Hong Kong, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance highlighting increased showers, thunderstorms, and southerly winds of 4–6 on the Beaufort scale for August 25. These factors promote greater cloud cover and convective rainfall that suppress peak daytime heating, favoring maximum temperatures near 29–31°C. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread around these values due to variable thunderstorm timing and intensity, which can locally reduce or briefly allow higher readings depending on solar insolation breaks. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty window, with probabilities clustered on 30–32°C outcomes pending the next model runs and observational updates from regional monitoring agencies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,390End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea is driving unsettled conditions across Hong Kong, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance highlighting increased showers, thunderstorms, and southerly winds of 4–6 on the Beaufort scale for August 25. These factors promote greater cloud cover and convective rainfall that suppress peak daytime heating, favoring maximum temperatures near 29–31°C. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread around these values due to variable thunderstorm timing and intensity, which can locally reduce or briefly allow higher readings depending on solar insolation breaks. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty window, with probabilities clustered on 30–32°C outcomes pending the next model runs and observational updates from regional monitoring agencies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,390End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea is driving unsettled conditions across Hong Kong, with official Hong Kong Observatory guidance highlighting increased showers, thunderstorms, and southerly winds of 4–6 on the Beaufort scale for August 25. These factors promote greater cloud cover and convective rainfall that suppress peak daytime heating, favoring maximum temperatures near 29–31°C. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread around these values due to variable thunderstorm timing and intensity, which can locally reduce or briefly allow higher readings depending on solar insolation breaks. Trader consensus reflects this narrow scientific uncertainty window, with probabilities clustered on 30–32°C outcomes pending the next model runs and observational updates from regional monitoring agencies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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