Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of exactly 31°C on August 22, 2026, establishing the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligned with late-summer climatology, where mean August highs hover near 31°C under typical southwesterly flow, relative humidity of 70–95%, and scattered showers that curtailed surface heating. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models converged on this value in the final forecast window, consistent with the observatory’s headquarters reading that serves as the definitive resolution source. While post-event station anomalies or minor measurement revisions remain theoretically possible, the absence of extreme forcing or model divergence left negligible scope for alternative thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 22?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 22?
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$163,659 Vol.
$163,659 Vol.
Aug 22, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$163,659 Vol.
$163,659 Vol.
Aug 22, 2026
25°C or below
$268 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$382 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,233 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$12,387 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$31,853 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$22,577 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$39,738 Vol.
100%
32°C
$19,109 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$24,560 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$7,986 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$3,566 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of exactly 31°C on August 22, 2026, establishing the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligned with late-summer climatology, where mean August highs hover near 31°C under typical southwesterly flow, relative humidity of 70–95%, and scattered showers that curtailed surface heating. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models converged on this value in the final forecast window, consistent with the observatory’s headquarters reading that serves as the definitive resolution source. While post-event station anomalies or minor measurement revisions remain theoretically possible, the absence of extreme forcing or model divergence left negligible scope for alternative thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$163,659End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of exactly 31°C on August 22, 2026, establishing the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligned with late-summer climatology, where mean August highs hover near 31°C under typical southwesterly flow, relative humidity of 70–95%, and scattered showers that curtailed surface heating. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models converged on this value in the final forecast window, consistent with the observatory’s headquarters reading that serves as the definitive resolution source. While post-event station anomalies or minor measurement revisions remain theoretically possible, the absence of extreme forcing or model divergence left negligible scope for alternative thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$163,659End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of exactly 31°C on August 22, 2026, establishing the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligned with late-summer climatology, where mean August highs hover near 31°C under typical southwesterly flow, relative humidity of 70–95%, and scattered showers that curtailed surface heating. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models converged on this value in the final forecast window, consistent with the observatory’s headquarters reading that serves as the definitive resolution source. While post-event station anomalies or minor measurement revisions remain theoretically possible, the absence of extreme forcing or model divergence left negligible scope for alternative thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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