**Persistent high-pressure dominance and southwest flow are sustaining extreme heat across North Texas, positioning Dallas for another very hot day on August 25 with official National Weather Service forecasts calling for a high near 107°F under mostly sunny skies.** Multiple models and outlets (including WeatherBug, WillyWeather, and local updates) converge on afternoon maxima of 104–107°F, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 102–105°F bins. Climatologically, late-August highs in Dallas average ~95°F, but a strong upper-level ridge and dry southwesterly winds have pushed recent readings 10–15°F above normal, with heat indices reaching 110°F. The all-time August 25 record stands at 109°F (2023), yet current steering patterns and lack of significant moisture or frontal intrusion make a substantial cool-down unlikely before Tuesday. Traders appear to be anchoring on this model consensus while assigning modest probability to minor forecast adjustments or localized variations that could nudge the official high into the upper 100s or low 100s. No major model shifts or synoptic changes have emerged in the latest guidance to alter the central tendency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on August 25?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 25?
104-105°F 35%
106-107°F 23%
102-103°F 22%
108-109°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
99°F or below
1%
100-101°F
3%
102-103°F
22%
104-105°F
35%
106-107°F
23%
108-109°F
9%
110-111°F
4%
112-113°F
1%
114-115°F
1%
116-117°F
1%
118°F or higher
1%
104-105°F 35%
106-107°F 23%
102-103°F 22%
108-109°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
99°F or below
$366 Vol.
1%
100-101°F
$720 Vol.
3%
102-103°F
$177 Vol.
22%
104-105°F
$335 Vol.
35%
106-107°F
$66 Vol.
23%
108-109°F
$25 Vol.
9%
110-111°F
$98 Vol.
4%
112-113°F
$50 Vol.
1%
114-115°F
$10 Vol.
1%
116-117°F
$5 Vol.
1%
118°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and southwest flow are sustaining extreme heat across North Texas, positioning Dallas for another very hot day on August 25 with official National Weather Service forecasts calling for a high near 107°F under mostly sunny skies.** Multiple models and outlets (including WeatherBug, WillyWeather, and local updates) converge on afternoon maxima of 104–107°F, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 102–105°F bins.
Climatologically, late-August highs in Dallas average ~95°F, but a strong upper-level ridge and dry southwesterly winds have pushed recent readings 10–15°F above normal, with heat indices reaching 110°F. The all-time August 25 record stands at 109°F (2023), yet current steering patterns and lack of significant moisture or frontal intrusion make a substantial cool-down unlikely before Tuesday.
Traders appear to be anchoring on this model consensus while assigning modest probability to minor forecast adjustments or localized variations that could nudge the official high into the upper 100s or low 100s. No major model shifts or synoptic changes have emerged in the latest guidance to alter the central tendency.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$1,856End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and southwest flow are sustaining extreme heat across North Texas, positioning Dallas for another very hot day on August 25 with official National Weather Service forecasts calling for a high near 107°F under mostly sunny skies.** Multiple models and outlets (including WeatherBug, WillyWeather, and local updates) converge on afternoon maxima of 104–107°F, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 102–105°F bins.
Climatologically, late-August highs in Dallas average ~95°F, but a strong upper-level ridge and dry southwesterly winds have pushed recent readings 10–15°F above normal, with heat indices reaching 110°F. The all-time August 25 record stands at 109°F (2023), yet current steering patterns and lack of significant moisture or frontal intrusion make a substantial cool-down unlikely before Tuesday.
Traders appear to be anchoring on this model consensus while assigning modest probability to minor forecast adjustments or localized variations that could nudge the official high into the upper 100s or low 100s. No major model shifts or synoptic changes have emerged in the latest guidance to alter the central tendency.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,856End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high-pressure dominance and southwest flow are sustaining extreme heat across North Texas, positioning Dallas for another very hot day on August 25 with official National Weather Service forecasts calling for a high near 107°F under mostly sunny skies.** Multiple models and outlets (including WeatherBug, WillyWeather, and local updates) converge on afternoon maxima of 104–107°F, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 102–105°F bins. Climatologically, late-August highs in Dallas average ~95°F, but a strong upper-level ridge and dry southwesterly winds have pushed recent readings 10–15°F above normal, with heat indices reaching 110°F. The all-time August 25 record stands at 109°F (2023), yet current steering patterns and lack of significant moisture or frontal intrusion make a substantial cool-down unlikely before Tuesday. Traders appear to be anchoring on this model consensus while assigning modest probability to minor forecast adjustments or localized variations that could nudge the official high into the upper 100s or low 100s. No major model shifts or synoptic changes have emerged in the latest guidance to alter the central tendency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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