Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts establish a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 27, driven by a frontal boundary drawing moist air and upper-level cooling that favors widespread cloud cover and scattered showers rather than clear-sky radiational cooling. Recent model runs and station observations show overnight lows holding near 26–27°C amid high humidity and light winds, consistent with late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and marine influence limit drops below the forecast threshold. Trader consensus at 77% for 26°C reflects this strong alignment of deterministic guidance and real-time data; modest probability on 25°C acknowledges potential for brief clearing or measurement timing differences before official daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 27?
26°C 67%
25°C 15%
23°C 4.0%
22°C <1%
NEW
$11,442 Vol.
NEW
$11,442 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
4%
24°C
1%
25°C
13%
26°C
76%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 67%
25°C 15%
23°C 4.0%
22°C <1%
NEW
$11,442 Vol.
NEW
$11,442 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
21°C or below
$343 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$240 Vol.
1%
23°C
$793 Vol.
4%
24°C
$366 Vol.
1%
25°C
$1,011 Vol.
13%
26°C
$2,486 Vol.
76%
27°C
$4,277 Vol.
1%
28°C
$692 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$873 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$206 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$156 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts establish a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 27, driven by a frontal boundary drawing moist air and upper-level cooling that favors widespread cloud cover and scattered showers rather than clear-sky radiational cooling. Recent model runs and station observations show overnight lows holding near 26–27°C amid high humidity and light winds, consistent with late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and marine influence limit drops below the forecast threshold. Trader consensus at 77% for 26°C reflects this strong alignment of deterministic guidance and real-time data; modest probability on 25°C acknowledges potential for brief clearing or measurement timing differences before official daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$11,442End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts establish a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 27, driven by a frontal boundary drawing moist air and upper-level cooling that favors widespread cloud cover and scattered showers rather than clear-sky radiational cooling. Recent model runs and station observations show overnight lows holding near 26–27°C amid high humidity and light winds, consistent with late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and marine influence limit drops below the forecast threshold. Trader consensus at 77% for 26°C reflects this strong alignment of deterministic guidance and real-time data; modest probability on 25°C acknowledges potential for brief clearing or measurement timing differences before official daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,442End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts establish a 26°C minimum for Tokyo on August 27, driven by a frontal boundary drawing moist air and upper-level cooling that favors widespread cloud cover and scattered showers rather than clear-sky radiational cooling. Recent model runs and station observations show overnight lows holding near 26–27°C amid high humidity and light winds, consistent with late-August climatology where urban heat-island effects and marine influence limit drops below the forecast threshold. Trader consensus at 77% for 26°C reflects this strong alignment of deterministic guidance and real-time data; modest probability on 25°C acknowledges potential for brief clearing or measurement timing differences before official daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions