**Persistent cloudy skies, frequent showers, and a broad low-pressure trough are suppressing daytime heating over Hong Kong on August 27, 2026, keeping official forecasts centered on a maximum of 31°C.** The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and multiple models project a daytime range of 27–31°C under south to southwest winds of force 4, occasionally 5 offshore, with relative humidity of 75–95% and a high chance of rain and thunderstorms, some heavy at times. These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, preventing temperatures from climbing higher. Market-implied odds place the highest probability on 30–31°C (combined ~65.5%), consistent with the consensus forecast range, while the modest 10.5% on 32°C reflects the low likelihood of significant clearing or reduced rainfall that would allow greater surface heating. Historical August patterns in the region show similar trough-influenced days rarely exceed the upper end of official guidance when convection persists. New observational data or updated model runs from HKO or NOAA later on the 26th could refine the exact maximum, but current guidance indicates little upside beyond 31°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 27?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 27?
30°C 36%
31°C 31%
29°C 19%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
4%
29°C
19%
30°C
36%
31°C
31%
32°C
11%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 36%
31°C 31%
29°C 19%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
24°C or below
$455 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$455 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$355 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$360 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$917 Vol.
4%
29°C
$2,805 Vol.
19%
30°C
$1,316 Vol.
36%
31°C
$960 Vol.
31%
32°C
$548 Vol.
11%
33°C
$695 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$450 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent cloudy skies, frequent showers, and a broad low-pressure trough are suppressing daytime heating over Hong Kong on August 27, 2026, keeping official forecasts centered on a maximum of 31°C.** The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and multiple models project a daytime range of 27–31°C under south to southwest winds of force 4, occasionally 5 offshore, with relative humidity of 75–95% and a high chance of rain and thunderstorms, some heavy at times. These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, preventing temperatures from climbing higher.
Market-implied odds place the highest probability on 30–31°C (combined ~65.5%), consistent with the consensus forecast range, while the modest 10.5% on 32°C reflects the low likelihood of significant clearing or reduced rainfall that would allow greater surface heating. Historical August patterns in the region show similar trough-influenced days rarely exceed the upper end of official guidance when convection persists. New observational data or updated model runs from HKO or NOAA later on the 26th could refine the exact maximum, but current guidance indicates little upside beyond 31°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,317End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent cloudy skies, frequent showers, and a broad low-pressure trough are suppressing daytime heating over Hong Kong on August 27, 2026, keeping official forecasts centered on a maximum of 31°C.** The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and multiple models project a daytime range of 27–31°C under south to southwest winds of force 4, occasionally 5 offshore, with relative humidity of 75–95% and a high chance of rain and thunderstorms, some heavy at times. These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, preventing temperatures from climbing higher.
Market-implied odds place the highest probability on 30–31°C (combined ~65.5%), consistent with the consensus forecast range, while the modest 10.5% on 32°C reflects the low likelihood of significant clearing or reduced rainfall that would allow greater surface heating. Historical August patterns in the region show similar trough-influenced days rarely exceed the upper end of official guidance when convection persists. New observational data or updated model runs from HKO or NOAA later on the 26th could refine the exact maximum, but current guidance indicates little upside beyond 31°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,317End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloudy skies, frequent showers, and a broad low-pressure trough are suppressing daytime heating over Hong Kong on August 27, 2026, keeping official forecasts centered on a maximum of 31°C.** The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and multiple models project a daytime range of 27–31°C under south to southwest winds of force 4, occasionally 5 offshore, with relative humidity of 75–95% and a high chance of rain and thunderstorms, some heavy at times. These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, preventing temperatures from climbing higher. Market-implied odds place the highest probability on 30–31°C (combined ~65.5%), consistent with the consensus forecast range, while the modest 10.5% on 32°C reflects the low likelihood of significant clearing or reduced rainfall that would allow greater surface heating. Historical August patterns in the region show similar trough-influenced days rarely exceed the upper end of official guidance when convection persists. New observational data or updated model runs from HKO or NOAA later on the 26th could refine the exact maximum, but current guidance indicates little upside beyond 31°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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