**Trader consensus on the Hong Kong minimum temperature for August 27 centers on 26–27°C (combined ~71.5% implied probability), consistent with official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models showing a daily range of 27–31°C.** Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow, high humidity (75–95%), and frequent showers or thunderstorms—driven by a broad low-pressure trough and nearby tropical cyclone remnants—limit overnight radiative cooling and keep surface temperatures elevated. Hourly guidance and ensemble outputs point to nighttime lows near 26–28°C, with cloud cover and moisture suppressing the drop below 26°C while also capping any brief spikes in cooling. Historical August climatology (typical minima ~25°C) provides context, but the current unsettled pattern favors the slightly warmer end. Upcoming HKO updates and refined model runs overnight on the 26th could shift probabilities if steering winds or rainfall timing change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 27?
27°C 45%
26°C 28%
28°C 13%
25°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
5%
25°C
8%
26°C
28%
27°C
45%
28°C
13%
29°C
3%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 45%
26°C 28%
28°C 13%
25°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
22°C or below
$20 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$325 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$192 Vol.
5%
25°C
$261 Vol.
8%
26°C
$175 Vol.
28%
27°C
$188 Vol.
45%
28°C
$208 Vol.
13%
29°C
$45 Vol.
3%
30°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$50 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$180 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on the Hong Kong minimum temperature for August 27 centers on 26–27°C (combined ~71.5% implied probability), consistent with official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models showing a daily range of 27–31°C.**
Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow, high humidity (75–95%), and frequent showers or thunderstorms—driven by a broad low-pressure trough and nearby tropical cyclone remnants—limit overnight radiative cooling and keep surface temperatures elevated. Hourly guidance and ensemble outputs point to nighttime lows near 26–28°C, with cloud cover and moisture suppressing the drop below 26°C while also capping any brief spikes in cooling. Historical August climatology (typical minima ~25°C) provides context, but the current unsettled pattern favors the slightly warmer end.
Upcoming HKO updates and refined model runs overnight on the 26th could shift probabilities if steering winds or rainfall timing change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,658End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus on the Hong Kong minimum temperature for August 27 centers on 26–27°C (combined ~71.5% implied probability), consistent with official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models showing a daily range of 27–31°C.**
Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow, high humidity (75–95%), and frequent showers or thunderstorms—driven by a broad low-pressure trough and nearby tropical cyclone remnants—limit overnight radiative cooling and keep surface temperatures elevated. Hourly guidance and ensemble outputs point to nighttime lows near 26–28°C, with cloud cover and moisture suppressing the drop below 26°C while also capping any brief spikes in cooling. Historical August climatology (typical minima ~25°C) provides context, but the current unsettled pattern favors the slightly warmer end.
Upcoming HKO updates and refined model runs overnight on the 26th could shift probabilities if steering winds or rainfall timing change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,658End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the Hong Kong minimum temperature for August 27 centers on 26–27°C (combined ~71.5% implied probability), consistent with official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models showing a daily range of 27–31°C.** Persistent southerly to southwesterly flow, high humidity (75–95%), and frequent showers or thunderstorms—driven by a broad low-pressure trough and nearby tropical cyclone remnants—limit overnight radiative cooling and keep surface temperatures elevated. Hourly guidance and ensemble outputs point to nighttime lows near 26–28°C, with cloud cover and moisture suppressing the drop below 26°C while also capping any brief spikes in cooling. Historical August climatology (typical minima ~25°C) provides context, but the current unsettled pattern favors the slightly warmer end. Upcoming HKO updates and refined model runs overnight on the 26th could shift probabilities if steering winds or rainfall timing change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions