Forecast models from the German Weather Service (DWD), ECMWF, and GFS ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–28 °C for Munich on August 26 under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly flow and isolated early showers. This places the peak near the long-term late-August average of roughly 23–25 °C while reflecting modest warm-air advection and limited insolation. Recent runs show low ensemble spread after a period of stable, near-normal conditions across southern Germany, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 27 °C (45 %) followed by 26 °C and 28 °C. No significant model shifts or extreme events have altered guidance in the past 48 hours, so traders anchor probabilities to this narrow range pending the final observational high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 26?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 26?
27°C 45%
26°C 25%
28°C 22%
25°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
12%
26°C
25%
27°C
45%
28°C
22%
29°C
3%
30°C
3%
31°C or higher
3%
27°C 45%
26°C 25%
28°C 22%
25°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
$23 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$50 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
3%
25°C
$161 Vol.
12%
26°C
$55 Vol.
25%
27°C
$103 Vol.
45%
28°C
$18 Vol.
22%
29°C
$0 Vol.
3%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the German Weather Service (DWD), ECMWF, and GFS ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–28 °C for Munich on August 26 under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly flow and isolated early showers. This places the peak near the long-term late-August average of roughly 23–25 °C while reflecting modest warm-air advection and limited insolation. Recent runs show low ensemble spread after a period of stable, near-normal conditions across southern Germany, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 27 °C (45 %) followed by 26 °C and 28 °C. No significant model shifts or extreme events have altered guidance in the past 48 hours, so traders anchor probabilities to this narrow range pending the final observational high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$409End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the German Weather Service (DWD), ECMWF, and GFS ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–28 °C for Munich on August 26 under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly flow and isolated early showers. This places the peak near the long-term late-August average of roughly 23–25 °C while reflecting modest warm-air advection and limited insolation. Recent runs show low ensemble spread after a period of stable, near-normal conditions across southern Germany, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 27 °C (45 %) followed by 26 °C and 28 °C. No significant model shifts or extreme events have altered guidance in the past 48 hours, so traders anchor probabilities to this narrow range pending the final observational high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$409End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the German Weather Service (DWD), ECMWF, and GFS ensembles converge on a daytime maximum of 26–28 °C for Munich on August 26 under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly flow and isolated early showers. This places the peak near the long-term late-August average of roughly 23–25 °C while reflecting modest warm-air advection and limited insolation. Recent runs show low ensemble spread after a period of stable, near-normal conditions across southern Germany, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on 27 °C (45 %) followed by 26 °C and 28 °C. No significant model shifts or extreme events have altered guidance in the past 48 hours, so traders anchor probabilities to this narrow range pending the final observational high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions