Recent forecast model runs for São Paulo show notable divergence in overnight cooling on August 28, with some guidance indicating minimums near 15–17 °C under clear skies and light northeasterly flow while others hold closer to 19–21 °C amid residual warmth and higher dew points. This spread stems from differences in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of any subtle frontal approach, against a backdrop of above-normal daytime highs exceeding 30 °C. Historical climatology places typical late-August lows around 12–15 °C, so current conditions reflect suppressed radiative cooling. Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution runs against ensemble consensus ahead of final observational data, producing closely matched probabilities across the 19 °C and sub-10 °C brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
10°C or below 86%
19°C 84%
20°C or higher 75%
12°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
86%
11°C
47%
12°C
48%
13°C
48%
14°C
48%
15°C
32%
16°C
31%
17°C
26%
18°C
48%
19°C
84%
20°C or higher
75%
10°C or below 86%
19°C 84%
20°C or higher 75%
12°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
86%
11°C
$0 Vol.
47%
12°C
$0 Vol.
48%
13°C
$0 Vol.
48%
14°C
$0 Vol.
48%
15°C
$0 Vol.
32%
16°C
$0 Vol.
31%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
48%
19°C
$0 Vol.
84%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for São Paulo show notable divergence in overnight cooling on August 28, with some guidance indicating minimums near 15–17 °C under clear skies and light northeasterly flow while others hold closer to 19–21 °C amid residual warmth and higher dew points. This spread stems from differences in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of any subtle frontal approach, against a backdrop of above-normal daytime highs exceeding 30 °C. Historical climatology places typical late-August lows around 12–15 °C, so current conditions reflect suppressed radiative cooling. Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution runs against ensemble consensus ahead of final observational data, producing closely matched probabilities across the 19 °C and sub-10 °C brackets.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs for São Paulo show notable divergence in overnight cooling on August 28, with some guidance indicating minimums near 15–17 °C under clear skies and light northeasterly flow while others hold closer to 19–21 °C amid residual warmth and higher dew points. This spread stems from differences in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of any subtle frontal approach, against a backdrop of above-normal daytime highs exceeding 30 °C. Historical climatology places typical late-August lows around 12–15 °C, so current conditions reflect suppressed radiative cooling. Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution runs against ensemble consensus ahead of final observational data, producing closely matched probabilities across the 19 °C and sub-10 °C brackets.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs for São Paulo show notable divergence in overnight cooling on August 28, with some guidance indicating minimums near 15–17 °C under clear skies and light northeasterly flow while others hold closer to 19–21 °C amid residual warmth and higher dew points. This spread stems from differences in boundary-layer moisture and the timing of any subtle frontal approach, against a backdrop of above-normal daytime highs exceeding 30 °C. Historical climatology places typical late-August lows around 12–15 °C, so current conditions reflect suppressed radiative cooling. Traders appear to weigh the latest high-resolution runs against ensemble consensus ahead of final observational data, producing closely matched probabilities across the 19 °C and sub-10 °C brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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