Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a moderate likelihood of enhanced nocturnal cooling in São Paulo overnight into August 27, driven by clearer skies, lighter winds, and a relatively dry airmass allowing efficient radiational heat loss from the urban surface. With August climatological minimums near 12°C and recent cold anomalies already dipping to 12–13°C earlier in the month, traders have priced in a 46% implied probability for 10°C or below, reflecting model spread between warmer scenarios (14–18°C lows from several global ensembles) and cooler outliers. Upcoming INMET and CGE updates, plus the next model runs, will clarify whether steering patterns sustain this potential or shift toward the milder 15–17°C range currently favored by most deterministic guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 27?
10°C or below 86%
19°C 49%
11°C 47%
15°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
10°C or below
86%
11°C
47%
12°C
25%
13°C
25%
14°C
25%
15°C
28%
16°C
28%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C
49%
20°C or higher
2%
10°C or below 86%
19°C 49%
11°C 47%
15°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
10°C or below
$5 Vol.
86%
11°C
$5 Vol.
47%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
25%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C
$5 Vol.
49%
20°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a moderate likelihood of enhanced nocturnal cooling in São Paulo overnight into August 27, driven by clearer skies, lighter winds, and a relatively dry airmass allowing efficient radiational heat loss from the urban surface. With August climatological minimums near 12°C and recent cold anomalies already dipping to 12–13°C earlier in the month, traders have priced in a 46% implied probability for 10°C or below, reflecting model spread between warmer scenarios (14–18°C lows from several global ensembles) and cooler outliers. Upcoming INMET and CGE updates, plus the next model runs, will clarify whether steering patterns sustain this potential or shift toward the milder 15–17°C range currently favored by most deterministic guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a moderate likelihood of enhanced nocturnal cooling in São Paulo overnight into August 27, driven by clearer skies, lighter winds, and a relatively dry airmass allowing efficient radiational heat loss from the urban surface. With August climatological minimums near 12°C and recent cold anomalies already dipping to 12–13°C earlier in the month, traders have priced in a 46% implied probability for 10°C or below, reflecting model spread between warmer scenarios (14–18°C lows from several global ensembles) and cooler outliers. Upcoming INMET and CGE updates, plus the next model runs, will clarify whether steering patterns sustain this potential or shift toward the milder 15–17°C range currently favored by most deterministic guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates a moderate likelihood of enhanced nocturnal cooling in São Paulo overnight into August 27, driven by clearer skies, lighter winds, and a relatively dry airmass allowing efficient radiational heat loss from the urban surface. With August climatological minimums near 12°C and recent cold anomalies already dipping to 12–13°C earlier in the month, traders have priced in a 46% implied probability for 10°C or below, reflecting model spread between warmer scenarios (14–18°C lows from several global ensembles) and cooler outliers. Upcoming INMET and CGE updates, plus the next model runs, will clarify whether steering patterns sustain this potential or shift toward the milder 15–17°C range currently favored by most deterministic guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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