Recent forecast model consensus for São Paulo points to overnight lows near 15–16°C on August 26, with trader odds split closely between milder (≥20°C at 41%) and cooler (≤10°C at 38.5%) outcomes reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and radiative cooling. Persistent low-level stratus and southeasterly flow from the Atlantic high limit nocturnal temperature drops, while any clearing or lighter winds could allow greater heat loss toward the urban boundary layer. Dew points near 14–15°C and light precipitation chances further moderate extremes, consistent with August climatology where minimums average 12–14°C but recent high-pressure patterns have supported milder nights. Updated model runs ahead of the overnight period will likely sharpen resolution criteria around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 26?
20°C or higher 55%
18°C 47%
19°C 42%
15°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
9%
11°C
11%
12°C
8%
13°C
24%
14°C
26%
15°C
32%
16°C
32%
17°C
27%
18°C
47%
19°C
42%
20°C or higher
55%
20°C or higher 55%
18°C 47%
19°C 42%
15°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
$5 Vol.
9%
11°C
$5 Vol.
11%
12°C
$4 Vol.
8%
13°C
$0 Vol.
24%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
32%
16°C
$0 Vol.
32%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$5 Vol.
47%
19°C
$5 Vol.
42%
20°C or higher
$5 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus for São Paulo points to overnight lows near 15–16°C on August 26, with trader odds split closely between milder (≥20°C at 41%) and cooler (≤10°C at 38.5%) outcomes reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and radiative cooling. Persistent low-level stratus and southeasterly flow from the Atlantic high limit nocturnal temperature drops, while any clearing or lighter winds could allow greater heat loss toward the urban boundary layer. Dew points near 14–15°C and light precipitation chances further moderate extremes, consistent with August climatology where minimums average 12–14°C but recent high-pressure patterns have supported milder nights. Updated model runs ahead of the overnight period will likely sharpen resolution criteria around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$29End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus for São Paulo points to overnight lows near 15–16°C on August 26, with trader odds split closely between milder (≥20°C at 41%) and cooler (≤10°C at 38.5%) outcomes reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and radiative cooling. Persistent low-level stratus and southeasterly flow from the Atlantic high limit nocturnal temperature drops, while any clearing or lighter winds could allow greater heat loss toward the urban boundary layer. Dew points near 14–15°C and light precipitation chances further moderate extremes, consistent with August climatology where minimums average 12–14°C but recent high-pressure patterns have supported milder nights. Updated model runs ahead of the overnight period will likely sharpen resolution criteria around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus for São Paulo points to overnight lows near 15–16°C on August 26, with trader odds split closely between milder (≥20°C at 41%) and cooler (≤10°C at 38.5%) outcomes reflecting uncertainty in cloud cover and radiative cooling. Persistent low-level stratus and southeasterly flow from the Atlantic high limit nocturnal temperature drops, while any clearing or lighter winds could allow greater heat loss toward the urban boundary layer. Dew points near 14–15°C and light precipitation chances further moderate extremes, consistent with August climatology where minimums average 12–14°C but recent high-pressure patterns have supported milder nights. Updated model runs ahead of the overnight period will likely sharpen resolution criteria around these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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