Recent forecasts for Mexico City’s overnight low on August 26 center on 11–14 °C, driven by the city’s 2,240 m elevation, persistent cloud cover, and light northerly flow during the rainy season. Multiple models (including GFS and ECMWF runs) project minimums near 12 °C amid 40–55 % rain chances that limit radiative cooling, while recent August observations have shown lows of 12–14 °C under similar conditions. Historical August averages hover around 10–12 °C, with rare dips below 10 °C. Trader emphasis on the 9 °C-or-below bin (46.5 %) likely reflects model spread in dew-point forecasts and the possibility of localized urban cooling, whereas the clustered 11–14 °C outcomes (roughly 25 % each) capture consensus around typical wet-season radiative and advective cooling rates ahead of the next model update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 26?
9°C or below 58%
10°C 46%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
58%
10°C
46%
11°C
24%
12°C
25%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
26%
16°C
24%
17°C
8%
18°C
6%
19°C or higher
23%
9°C or below 58%
10°C 46%
13°C 26%
14°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
58%
10°C
$5 Vol.
46%
11°C
$0 Vol.
24%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
26%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$5 Vol.
8%
18°C
$5 Vol.
6%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Mexico City’s overnight low on August 26 center on 11–14 °C, driven by the city’s 2,240 m elevation, persistent cloud cover, and light northerly flow during the rainy season. Multiple models (including GFS and ECMWF runs) project minimums near 12 °C amid 40–55 % rain chances that limit radiative cooling, while recent August observations have shown lows of 12–14 °C under similar conditions. Historical August averages hover around 10–12 °C, with rare dips below 10 °C. Trader emphasis on the 9 °C-or-below bin (46.5 %) likely reflects model spread in dew-point forecasts and the possibility of localized urban cooling, whereas the clustered 11–14 °C outcomes (roughly 25 % each) capture consensus around typical wet-season radiative and advective cooling rates ahead of the next model update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Mexico City’s overnight low on August 26 center on 11–14 °C, driven by the city’s 2,240 m elevation, persistent cloud cover, and light northerly flow during the rainy season. Multiple models (including GFS and ECMWF runs) project minimums near 12 °C amid 40–55 % rain chances that limit radiative cooling, while recent August observations have shown lows of 12–14 °C under similar conditions. Historical August averages hover around 10–12 °C, with rare dips below 10 °C. Trader emphasis on the 9 °C-or-below bin (46.5 %) likely reflects model spread in dew-point forecasts and the possibility of localized urban cooling, whereas the clustered 11–14 °C outcomes (roughly 25 % each) capture consensus around typical wet-season radiative and advective cooling rates ahead of the next model update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Mexico City’s overnight low on August 26 center on 11–14 °C, driven by the city’s 2,240 m elevation, persistent cloud cover, and light northerly flow during the rainy season. Multiple models (including GFS and ECMWF runs) project minimums near 12 °C amid 40–55 % rain chances that limit radiative cooling, while recent August observations have shown lows of 12–14 °C under similar conditions. Historical August averages hover around 10–12 °C, with rare dips below 10 °C. Trader emphasis on the 9 °C-or-below bin (46.5 %) likely reflects model spread in dew-point forecasts and the possibility of localized urban cooling, whereas the clustered 11–14 °C outcomes (roughly 25 % each) capture consensus around typical wet-season radiative and advective cooling rates ahead of the next model update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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