Current forecast models from sources including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms through the night of August 23–24, limiting radiative cooling and keeping the lowest temperature in Mexico City near 12–14 °C. This aligns with recent observed minima in the 12–15 °C range amid above-average rainfall and supports the market’s close clustering around the cooler and mid-range bins. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and intensity of overnight precipitation, which can enhance cooling through evaporative effects or suppress it via insulation from thick cloud decks, plus light variable winds that reduce mixing. Model consensus remains moderate given typical late-summer variability in the Valley of Mexico, with the next official updates likely to refine the precise minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 24?
9°C or below 69%
14°C 29%
13°C 20%
15°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
69%
10°C
12%
11°C
9%
12°C
15%
13°C
20%
14°C
29%
15°C
20%
16°C
10%
17°C
1%
18°C
11%
19°C or higher
2%
9°C or below 69%
14°C 29%
13°C 20%
15°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
9°C or below
$62 Vol.
69%
10°C
$55 Vol.
12%
11°C
$0 Vol.
9%
12°C
$0 Vol.
15%
13°C
$0 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
29%
15°C
$0 Vol.
20%
16°C
$0 Vol.
10%
17°C
$70 Vol.
1%
18°C
$135 Vol.
11%
19°C or higher
$135 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms through the night of August 23–24, limiting radiative cooling and keeping the lowest temperature in Mexico City near 12–14 °C. This aligns with recent observed minima in the 12–15 °C range amid above-average rainfall and supports the market’s close clustering around the cooler and mid-range bins. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and intensity of overnight precipitation, which can enhance cooling through evaporative effects or suppress it via insulation from thick cloud decks, plus light variable winds that reduce mixing. Model consensus remains moderate given typical late-summer variability in the Valley of Mexico, with the next official updates likely to refine the precise minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$457End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms through the night of August 23–24, limiting radiative cooling and keeping the lowest temperature in Mexico City near 12–14 °C. This aligns with recent observed minima in the 12–15 °C range amid above-average rainfall and supports the market’s close clustering around the cooler and mid-range bins. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and intensity of overnight precipitation, which can enhance cooling through evaporative effects or suppress it via insulation from thick cloud decks, plus light variable winds that reduce mixing. Model consensus remains moderate given typical late-summer variability in the Valley of Mexico, with the next official updates likely to refine the precise minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$457End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional point to persistent cloud cover, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorms through the night of August 23–24, limiting radiative cooling and keeping the lowest temperature in Mexico City near 12–14 °C. This aligns with recent observed minima in the 12–15 °C range amid above-average rainfall and supports the market’s close clustering around the cooler and mid-range bins. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing and intensity of overnight precipitation, which can enhance cooling through evaporative effects or suppress it via insulation from thick cloud decks, plus light variable winds that reduce mixing. Model consensus remains moderate given typical late-summer variability in the Valley of Mexico, with the next official updates likely to refine the precise minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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