**Cloud cover, widespread precipitation, and Mexico City's high elevation are the dominant factors capping the daily maximum temperature near 19–21°C on August 23, 2026.** Official forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and multiple numerical models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate persistent overcast skies and thunderstorms across the Valle de México, sharply limiting solar heating and convective mixing. This pattern has produced highs of 18–20°C in recent analogous days, well below the August climatological average of ~24°C. Recent observations confirm the trend: morning temperatures started in the mid-13°C range under cloudy conditions, with dew points near 12–13°C and light winds further suppressing warming. The market's heavy weighting toward 19–21°C (combined ~90% probability) aligns with this consensus, as traders incorporate the latest model runs showing only marginal afternoon recovery before renewed showers. Higher outcomes above 22°C carry low implied odds because sustained insolation would require a rapid clearing that current guidance does not support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 23?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 23?
20°C 40%
21°C 26%
19°C 24.2%
22°C 8%
$15,607 Vol.
$15,607 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
18°C or below
5%
19°C
24%
20°C
40%
21°C
26%
22°C
8%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
20°C 40%
21°C 26%
19°C 24.2%
22°C 8%
$15,607 Vol.
$15,607 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
18°C or below
$987 Vol.
5%
19°C
$1,133 Vol.
24%
20°C
$1,812 Vol.
40%
21°C
$2,815 Vol.
26%
22°C
$2,440 Vol.
8%
23°C
$1,795 Vol.
2%
24°C
$1,748 Vol.
2%
25°C
$724 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$581 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$548 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$1,025 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cloud cover, widespread precipitation, and Mexico City's high elevation are the dominant factors capping the daily maximum temperature near 19–21°C on August 23, 2026.** Official forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and multiple numerical models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate persistent overcast skies and thunderstorms across the Valle de México, sharply limiting solar heating and convective mixing. This pattern has produced highs of 18–20°C in recent analogous days, well below the August climatological average of ~24°C.
Recent observations confirm the trend: morning temperatures started in the mid-13°C range under cloudy conditions, with dew points near 12–13°C and light winds further suppressing warming. The market's heavy weighting toward 19–21°C (combined ~90% probability) aligns with this consensus, as traders incorporate the latest model runs showing only marginal afternoon recovery before renewed showers. Higher outcomes above 22°C carry low implied odds because sustained insolation would require a rapid clearing that current guidance does not support.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ET
Volume
$15,607End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cloud cover, widespread precipitation, and Mexico City's high elevation are the dominant factors capping the daily maximum temperature near 19–21°C on August 23, 2026.** Official forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and multiple numerical models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate persistent overcast skies and thunderstorms across the Valle de México, sharply limiting solar heating and convective mixing. This pattern has produced highs of 18–20°C in recent analogous days, well below the August climatological average of ~24°C.
Recent observations confirm the trend: morning temperatures started in the mid-13°C range under cloudy conditions, with dew points near 12–13°C and light winds further suppressing warming. The market's heavy weighting toward 19–21°C (combined ~90% probability) aligns with this consensus, as traders incorporate the latest model runs showing only marginal afternoon recovery before renewed showers. Higher outcomes above 22°C carry low implied odds because sustained insolation would require a rapid clearing that current guidance does not support.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,607End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cloud cover, widespread precipitation, and Mexico City's high elevation are the dominant factors capping the daily maximum temperature near 19–21°C on August 23, 2026.** Official forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and multiple numerical models (GFS, ECMWF) indicate persistent overcast skies and thunderstorms across the Valle de México, sharply limiting solar heating and convective mixing. This pattern has produced highs of 18–20°C in recent analogous days, well below the August climatological average of ~24°C. Recent observations confirm the trend: morning temperatures started in the mid-13°C range under cloudy conditions, with dew points near 12–13°C and light winds further suppressing warming. The market's heavy weighting toward 19–21°C (combined ~90% probability) aligns with this consensus, as traders incorporate the latest model runs showing only marginal afternoon recovery before renewed showers. Higher outcomes above 22°C carry low implied odds because sustained insolation would require a rapid clearing that current guidance does not support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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