Recent forecast model runs from the National Weather Service and major ensembles show Chicago's overnight low on August 26 hovering near the mid-to-upper 60s, with 66-67°F and 68-69°F emerging as the tightest market-implied outcomes at 36% and 29.5%. Persistent high pressure and light winds under partly cloudy skies favor modest radiational cooling, yet a weak warm-air advection pattern and urban heat-island effects introduce variability that keeps probabilities clustered across 60-71°F bins. Historical August climatology for the city places average lows near 64°F, underscoring how small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any passing cloud cover can swing the minimum by several degrees. Traders are monitoring the next NWS update and evening sounding data for clearer signals before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 26?
58-59°F 48%
74°F or higher 43%
66-67°F 38%
68-69°F 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
55°F or below
12%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
48%
60-61°F
25%
62-63°F
26%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
38%
68-69°F
31%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
2%
74°F or higher
43%
58-59°F 48%
74°F or higher 43%
66-67°F 38%
68-69°F 31%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
55°F or below
$5 Vol.
12%
56-57°F
$5 Vol.
6%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
48%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
25%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
26%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
26%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
38%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
31%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$5 Vol.
2%
74°F or higher
$5 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from the National Weather Service and major ensembles show Chicago's overnight low on August 26 hovering near the mid-to-upper 60s, with 66-67°F and 68-69°F emerging as the tightest market-implied outcomes at 36% and 29.5%. Persistent high pressure and light winds under partly cloudy skies favor modest radiational cooling, yet a weak warm-air advection pattern and urban heat-island effects introduce variability that keeps probabilities clustered across 60-71°F bins. Historical August climatology for the city places average lows near 64°F, underscoring how small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any passing cloud cover can swing the minimum by several degrees. Traders are monitoring the next NWS update and evening sounding data for clearer signals before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from the National Weather Service and major ensembles show Chicago's overnight low on August 26 hovering near the mid-to-upper 60s, with 66-67°F and 68-69°F emerging as the tightest market-implied outcomes at 36% and 29.5%. Persistent high pressure and light winds under partly cloudy skies favor modest radiational cooling, yet a weak warm-air advection pattern and urban heat-island effects introduce variability that keeps probabilities clustered across 60-71°F bins. Historical August climatology for the city places average lows near 64°F, underscoring how small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any passing cloud cover can swing the minimum by several degrees. Traders are monitoring the next NWS update and evening sounding data for clearer signals before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from the National Weather Service and major ensembles show Chicago's overnight low on August 26 hovering near the mid-to-upper 60s, with 66-67°F and 68-69°F emerging as the tightest market-implied outcomes at 36% and 29.5%. Persistent high pressure and light winds under partly cloudy skies favor modest radiational cooling, yet a weak warm-air advection pattern and urban heat-island effects introduce variability that keeps probabilities clustered across 60-71°F bins. Historical August climatology for the city places average lows near 64°F, underscoring how small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any passing cloud cover can swing the minimum by several degrees. Traders are monitoring the next NWS update and evening sounding data for clearer signals before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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