Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to overnight lows of 60–64°F for Chicago on August 24 under partly to mostly clear skies and light northwest-to-southwest winds. Light winds and modest dew points favor radiational cooling after sunset, while Lake Michigan’s moderating influence and residual warmth from the urban heat island limit how far temperatures can drop. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 56–59°F reflects model spread, differences between O’Hare and downtown observations, and the precise timing of the daily minimum. Cooler tail outcomes (47°F or below) remain possible only if an unexpected clear, calm window develops, while warmer bins align with any increase in cloud cover or stronger lake breeze.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
47°F or below 69%
66°F or higher 49%
58-59°F 37%
56-57°F 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
69%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
10%
52-53°F
16%
54-55°F
20%
56-57°F
29%
58-59°F
34%
60-61°F
11%
62-63°F
10%
64-65°F
1%
66°F or higher
49%
47°F or below 69%
66°F or higher 49%
58-59°F 37%
56-57°F 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
$12 Vol.
69%
48-49°F
$55 Vol.
3%
50-51°F
$55 Vol.
10%
52-53°F
$885 Vol.
16%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
20%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
29%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
34%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
11%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
10%
64-65°F
$90 Vol.
1%
66°F or higher
$85 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to overnight lows of 60–64°F for Chicago on August 24 under partly to mostly clear skies and light northwest-to-southwest winds. Light winds and modest dew points favor radiational cooling after sunset, while Lake Michigan’s moderating influence and residual warmth from the urban heat island limit how far temperatures can drop. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 56–59°F reflects model spread, differences between O’Hare and downtown observations, and the precise timing of the daily minimum. Cooler tail outcomes (47°F or below) remain possible only if an unexpected clear, calm window develops, while warmer bins align with any increase in cloud cover or stronger lake breeze.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,187End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to overnight lows of 60–64°F for Chicago on August 24 under partly to mostly clear skies and light northwest-to-southwest winds. Light winds and modest dew points favor radiational cooling after sunset, while Lake Michigan’s moderating influence and residual warmth from the urban heat island limit how far temperatures can drop. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 56–59°F reflects model spread, differences between O’Hare and downtown observations, and the precise timing of the daily minimum. Cooler tail outcomes (47°F or below) remain possible only if an unexpected clear, calm window develops, while warmer bins align with any increase in cloud cover or stronger lake breeze.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,187End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to overnight lows of 60–64°F for Chicago on August 24 under partly to mostly clear skies and light northwest-to-southwest winds. Light winds and modest dew points favor radiational cooling after sunset, while Lake Michigan’s moderating influence and residual warmth from the urban heat island limit how far temperatures can drop. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 56–59°F reflects model spread, differences between O’Hare and downtown observations, and the precise timing of the daily minimum. Cooler tail outcomes (47°F or below) remain possible only if an unexpected clear, calm window develops, while warmer bins align with any increase in cloud cover or stronger lake breeze.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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