Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and other models indicates a high near 74–80°F for Chicago on August 24 under mostly sunny skies with light northwest winds shifting northeast, producing lake-moderated readings cooler near the shoreline. This setup favors the market's leading 76–77°F and 78–79°F bins at 52% and 36.5% implied probability, as recent cooler-than-normal conditions on August 23 and the absence of warm advection or strong high pressure limit further warming. Traders weigh minor model spreads on peak timing and urban heat effects against historical late-August averages near 82°F, with resolution hinging on official Chicago observations amid stable synoptic patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
76-77°F 52%
78-79°F 37%
74-75°F 7%
80-81°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
7%
76-77°F
52%
78-79°F
37%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 52%
78-79°F 37%
74-75°F 7%
80-81°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
69°F or below
$180 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$336 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$380 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$357 Vol.
7%
76-77°F
$1,601 Vol.
52%
78-79°F
$333 Vol.
37%
80-81°F
$356 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$176 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$110 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$334 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$354 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and other models indicates a high near 74–80°F for Chicago on August 24 under mostly sunny skies with light northwest winds shifting northeast, producing lake-moderated readings cooler near the shoreline. This setup favors the market's leading 76–77°F and 78–79°F bins at 52% and 36.5% implied probability, as recent cooler-than-normal conditions on August 23 and the absence of warm advection or strong high pressure limit further warming. Traders weigh minor model spreads on peak timing and urban heat effects against historical late-August averages near 82°F, with resolution hinging on official Chicago observations amid stable synoptic patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$4,351End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and other models indicates a high near 74–80°F for Chicago on August 24 under mostly sunny skies with light northwest winds shifting northeast, producing lake-moderated readings cooler near the shoreline. This setup favors the market's leading 76–77°F and 78–79°F bins at 52% and 36.5% implied probability, as recent cooler-than-normal conditions on August 23 and the absence of warm advection or strong high pressure limit further warming. Traders weigh minor model spreads on peak timing and urban heat effects against historical late-August averages near 82°F, with resolution hinging on official Chicago observations amid stable synoptic patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,351End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and other models indicates a high near 74–80°F for Chicago on August 24 under mostly sunny skies with light northwest winds shifting northeast, producing lake-moderated readings cooler near the shoreline. This setup favors the market's leading 76–77°F and 78–79°F bins at 52% and 36.5% implied probability, as recent cooler-than-normal conditions on August 23 and the absence of warm advection or strong high pressure limit further warming. Traders weigh minor model spreads on peak timing and urban heat effects against historical late-August averages near 82°F, with resolution hinging on official Chicago observations amid stable synoptic patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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