Official National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago point to an overnight low near 60°F on August 23 under mostly clear skies and light winds, enabling efficient radiational cooling typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions. This aligns with short-range model consensus and places the minimum slightly below the August climatological average of about 66°F. The 95.5% market-implied probability for 60-61°F reflects traders' confidence in verified observations from primary stations such as O'Hare, where urban heat-island effects are accounted for in resolution criteria. A modest shift in cloud cover or wind overnight could push readings a degree or two higher, though current guidance shows limited divergence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?
60-61°F 96%
56-57°F 28%
58-59°F 13%
54-55°F 3%
$1,223 Vol.
$1,223 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
51°F or below
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
3%
56-57°F
28%
58-59°F
13%
60-61°F
96%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70°F or higher
<1%
60-61°F 96%
56-57°F 28%
58-59°F 13%
54-55°F 3%
$1,223 Vol.
$1,223 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
51°F or below
$117 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$148 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$5 Vol.
3%
56-57°F
$5 Vol.
28%
58-59°F
$27 Vol.
13%
60-61°F
$220 Vol.
96%
62-63°F
$120 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$100 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$180 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$145 Vol.
<1%
70°F or higher
$155 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago point to an overnight low near 60°F on August 23 under mostly clear skies and light winds, enabling efficient radiational cooling typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions. This aligns with short-range model consensus and places the minimum slightly below the August climatological average of about 66°F. The 95.5% market-implied probability for 60-61°F reflects traders' confidence in verified observations from primary stations such as O'Hare, where urban heat-island effects are accounted for in resolution criteria. A modest shift in cloud cover or wind overnight could push readings a degree or two higher, though current guidance shows limited divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,223End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago point to an overnight low near 60°F on August 23 under mostly clear skies and light winds, enabling efficient radiational cooling typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions. This aligns with short-range model consensus and places the minimum slightly below the August climatological average of about 66°F. The 95.5% market-implied probability for 60-61°F reflects traders' confidence in verified observations from primary stations such as O'Hare, where urban heat-island effects are accounted for in resolution criteria. A modest shift in cloud cover or wind overnight could push readings a degree or two higher, though current guidance shows limited divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,223End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago point to an overnight low near 60°F on August 23 under mostly clear skies and light winds, enabling efficient radiational cooling typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions. This aligns with short-range model consensus and places the minimum slightly below the August climatological average of about 66°F. The 95.5% market-implied probability for 60-61°F reflects traders' confidence in verified observations from primary stations such as O'Hare, where urban heat-island effects are accounted for in resolution criteria. A modest shift in cloud cover or wind overnight could push readings a degree or two higher, though current guidance shows limited divergence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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