Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Houston point to peak temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s on August 28, driving the close market-implied odds between the 92–93°F and 94–95°F bins. Afternoon heating under a typical late-summer ridge, Gulf moisture, and urban heat-island effects set the baseline near seasonal normals, while small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight split between those leading outcomes. Traders weigh the latest GFS and ECMWF runs, which show limited spread but acknowledge typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 2–4°F this far ahead. Updated model cycles and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 28?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 28?
94-95°F 38%
92-93°F 33%
90-91°F 16%
96-97°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
81°F or below
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
6%
90-91°F
16%
92-93°F
35%
94-95°F
38%
96-97°F
7%
98-99°F
1%
100°F or higher
1%
94-95°F 38%
92-93°F 33%
90-91°F 16%
96-97°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
81°F or below
$29 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$29 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$29 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$29 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
6%
90-91°F
$19 Vol.
16%
92-93°F
$143 Vol.
35%
94-95°F
$54 Vol.
38%
96-97°F
$156 Vol.
7%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
1%
100°F or higher
$39 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Houston point to peak temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s on August 28, driving the close market-implied odds between the 92–93°F and 94–95°F bins. Afternoon heating under a typical late-summer ridge, Gulf moisture, and urban heat-island effects set the baseline near seasonal normals, while small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight split between those leading outcomes. Traders weigh the latest GFS and ECMWF runs, which show limited spread but acknowledge typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 2–4°F this far ahead. Updated model cycles and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$528End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Houston point to peak temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s on August 28, driving the close market-implied odds between the 92–93°F and 94–95°F bins. Afternoon heating under a typical late-summer ridge, Gulf moisture, and urban heat-island effects set the baseline near seasonal normals, while small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight split between those leading outcomes. Traders weigh the latest GFS and ECMWF runs, which show limited spread but acknowledge typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 2–4°F this far ahead. Updated model cycles and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$528End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Houston point to peak temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s on August 28, driving the close market-implied odds between the 92–93°F and 94–95°F bins. Afternoon heating under a typical late-summer ridge, Gulf moisture, and urban heat-island effects set the baseline near seasonal normals, while small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or boundary-layer mixing explain the tight split between those leading outcomes. Traders weigh the latest GFS and ECMWF runs, which show limited spread but acknowledge typical forecast uncertainty ranges of 2–4°F this far ahead. Updated model cycles and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions