The market's tight split between 25°C (36%) and 26°C (41.5%) stems from Japan Meteorological Agency and global model consensus forecasting a Tokyo minimum near that range for August 28, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity from a moist frontal system. High dew points near 24–25°C and light variable winds are limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above the seasonal 23°C average. Recent days of heavy rain and humid air have reinforced this pattern, with forecasts showing only modest cooling overnight. Resolution hinges on precise overnight readings from official stations, as even small shifts in cloud timing or wind could tip the outcome between the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 28?
26°C 42%
25°C 36%
27°C 15%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
6%
23°C
5%
24°C
12%
25°C
36%
26°C
42%
27°C
15%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 42%
25°C 36%
27°C 15%
24°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
22°C or below
$224 Vol.
6%
23°C
$64 Vol.
5%
24°C
$96 Vol.
12%
25°C
$475 Vol.
36%
26°C
$242 Vol.
42%
27°C
$63 Vol.
15%
28°C
$10 Vol.
2%
29°C
$32 Vol.
1%
30°C
$37 Vol.
1%
31°C
$142 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$217 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's tight split between 25°C (36%) and 26°C (41.5%) stems from Japan Meteorological Agency and global model consensus forecasting a Tokyo minimum near that range for August 28, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity from a moist frontal system. High dew points near 24–25°C and light variable winds are limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above the seasonal 23°C average. Recent days of heavy rain and humid air have reinforced this pattern, with forecasts showing only modest cooling overnight. Resolution hinges on precise overnight readings from official stations, as even small shifts in cloud timing or wind could tip the outcome between the leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,600End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's tight split between 25°C (36%) and 26°C (41.5%) stems from Japan Meteorological Agency and global model consensus forecasting a Tokyo minimum near that range for August 28, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity from a moist frontal system. High dew points near 24–25°C and light variable winds are limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above the seasonal 23°C average. Recent days of heavy rain and humid air have reinforced this pattern, with forecasts showing only modest cooling overnight. Resolution hinges on precise overnight readings from official stations, as even small shifts in cloud timing or wind could tip the outcome between the leading bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,600End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's tight split between 25°C (36%) and 26°C (41.5%) stems from Japan Meteorological Agency and global model consensus forecasting a Tokyo minimum near that range for August 28, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity from a moist frontal system. High dew points near 24–25°C and light variable winds are limiting overnight radiative cooling, keeping lows above the seasonal 23°C average. Recent days of heavy rain and humid air have reinforced this pattern, with forecasts showing only modest cooling overnight. Resolution hinges on precise overnight readings from official stations, as even small shifts in cloud timing or wind could tip the outcome between the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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