Forecast consensus from MetService and international models, backed by high-pressure ridging and northwest advection of milder maritime air, has locked trader sentiment on a 15°C maximum at Wellington International Airport on August 29. Real-time observations and hourly guidance show daytime peaks stabilizing near 13–14°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with 20–30 km/h winds, aligning closely with late-winter climatology while the ridge suppresses cloud cover that would otherwise limit solar warming. This produces the market’s overwhelming 100% weighting on 15°C, as the resolution criteria hinge on the single highest NOAA station reading. Only an unexpected late-day surge from stronger insolation or a model shift introducing warmer advection could realistically push the peak to 16°C or higher before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 29?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 29?
15°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$68,516 Vol.
$68,516 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
100%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$68,516 Vol.
$68,516 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
9°C or below
$900 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,860 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$345 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,050 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$2,426 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$22,798 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$10,362 Vol.
100%
16°C
$10,713 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$9,286 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$6,529 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$1,249 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from MetService and international models, backed by high-pressure ridging and northwest advection of milder maritime air, has locked trader sentiment on a 15°C maximum at Wellington International Airport on August 29. Real-time observations and hourly guidance show daytime peaks stabilizing near 13–14°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with 20–30 km/h winds, aligning closely with late-winter climatology while the ridge suppresses cloud cover that would otherwise limit solar warming. This produces the market’s overwhelming 100% weighting on 15°C, as the resolution criteria hinge on the single highest NOAA station reading. Only an unexpected late-day surge from stronger insolation or a model shift introducing warmer advection could realistically push the peak to 16°C or higher before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$68,516End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from MetService and international models, backed by high-pressure ridging and northwest advection of milder maritime air, has locked trader sentiment on a 15°C maximum at Wellington International Airport on August 29. Real-time observations and hourly guidance show daytime peaks stabilizing near 13–14°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with 20–30 km/h winds, aligning closely with late-winter climatology while the ridge suppresses cloud cover that would otherwise limit solar warming. This produces the market’s overwhelming 100% weighting on 15°C, as the resolution criteria hinge on the single highest NOAA station reading. Only an unexpected late-day surge from stronger insolation or a model shift introducing warmer advection could realistically push the peak to 16°C or higher before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68,516End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from MetService and international models, backed by high-pressure ridging and northwest advection of milder maritime air, has locked trader sentiment on a 15°C maximum at Wellington International Airport on August 29. Real-time observations and hourly guidance show daytime peaks stabilizing near 13–14°C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with 20–30 km/h winds, aligning closely with late-winter climatology while the ridge suppresses cloud cover that would otherwise limit solar warming. This produces the market’s overwhelming 100% weighting on 15°C, as the resolution criteria hinge on the single highest NOAA station reading. Only an unexpected late-day surge from stronger insolation or a model shift introducing warmer advection could realistically push the peak to 16°C or higher before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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