**Cool, unsettled weather driven by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly flow is positioning 19–20 °C as the most probable maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 31.** Official guidance from the Met Office and other models indicates a daytime high near 19–21 °C amid widespread cloud cover, periods of rain or thunderstorms (especially morning and afternoon), and gusty southwest winds that limit daytime warming. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes—20 °C at 45.5 % implied probability and 19 °C at 26 %—reflecting trader consensus on a suppressed peak relative to the late-August climatological average of roughly 21 °C. Stronger or more persistent precipitation could cap the high closer to 19 °C, while any break in cloud cover or lighter winds might allow a brief push toward 21 °C. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers of any shifts in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 31?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 31?
20°C 46%
19°C 27%
21°C 18%
17°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
12%
18°C
12%
19°C
27%
20°C
46%
21°C
18%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 46%
19°C 27%
21°C 18%
17°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$57 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
12%
18°C
$0 Vol.
12%
19°C
$2 Vol.
27%
20°C
$39 Vol.
46%
21°C
$10 Vol.
18%
22°C
$3 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cool, unsettled weather driven by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly flow is positioning 19–20 °C as the most probable maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 31.** Official guidance from the Met Office and other models indicates a daytime high near 19–21 °C amid widespread cloud cover, periods of rain or thunderstorms (especially morning and afternoon), and gusty southwest winds that limit daytime warming. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes—20 °C at 45.5 % implied probability and 19 °C at 26 %—reflecting trader consensus on a suppressed peak relative to the late-August climatological average of roughly 21 °C.
Stronger or more persistent precipitation could cap the high closer to 19 °C, while any break in cloud cover or lighter winds might allow a brief push toward 21 °C. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers of any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$112End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cool, unsettled weather driven by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly flow is positioning 19–20 °C as the most probable maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 31.** Official guidance from the Met Office and other models indicates a daytime high near 19–21 °C amid widespread cloud cover, periods of rain or thunderstorms (especially morning and afternoon), and gusty southwest winds that limit daytime warming. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes—20 °C at 45.5 % implied probability and 19 °C at 26 %—reflecting trader consensus on a suppressed peak relative to the late-August climatological average of roughly 21 °C.
Stronger or more persistent precipitation could cap the high closer to 19 °C, while any break in cloud cover or lighter winds might allow a brief push toward 21 °C. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers of any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$112End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Cool, unsettled weather driven by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly flow is positioning 19–20 °C as the most probable maximum temperature in Amsterdam on August 31.** Official guidance from the Met Office and other models indicates a daytime high near 19–21 °C amid widespread cloud cover, periods of rain or thunderstorms (especially morning and afternoon), and gusty southwest winds that limit daytime warming. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes—20 °C at 45.5 % implied probability and 19 °C at 26 %—reflecting trader consensus on a suppressed peak relative to the late-August climatological average of roughly 21 °C. Stronger or more persistent precipitation could cap the high closer to 19 °C, while any break in cloud cover or lighter winds might allow a brief push toward 21 °C. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers of any shifts in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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