Weather model ensembles for Istanbul on August 31 indicate a narrow range of possible daily maxima centered near 26–27 °C, driven by uncertain timing of a weak frontal passage and variable low-level moisture from the Sea of Marmara. Short-range guidance from global and regional models shows modest spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with urban heat-island effects and Bosphorus sea-breeze circulation adding local variability that can shift peak readings by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology places normal highs near 28 °C, so current conditions reflect slightly cooler-than-average advection. Traders are weighting the most probable outcomes accordingly while awaiting the next model cycles and updated observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 31?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 31?
27°C 46%
26°C 27%
28°C 7%
24°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
23°C or below
4%
24°C
6%
25°C
5%
26°C
27%
27°C
36%
28°C
7%
29°C
5%
30°C
6%
31°C
6%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
2%
27°C 46%
26°C 27%
28°C 7%
24°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
6%
25°C
$20 Vol.
5%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$11 Vol.
36%
28°C
$0 Vol.
7%
29°C
$0 Vol.
5%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C
$0 Vol.
6%
32°C
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Weather model ensembles for Istanbul on August 31 indicate a narrow range of possible daily maxima centered near 26–27 °C, driven by uncertain timing of a weak frontal passage and variable low-level moisture from the Sea of Marmara. Short-range guidance from global and regional models shows modest spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with urban heat-island effects and Bosphorus sea-breeze circulation adding local variability that can shift peak readings by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology places normal highs near 28 °C, so current conditions reflect slightly cooler-than-average advection. Traders are weighting the most probable outcomes accordingly while awaiting the next model cycles and updated observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$31End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Weather model ensembles for Istanbul on August 31 indicate a narrow range of possible daily maxima centered near 26–27 °C, driven by uncertain timing of a weak frontal passage and variable low-level moisture from the Sea of Marmara. Short-range guidance from global and regional models shows modest spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with urban heat-island effects and Bosphorus sea-breeze circulation adding local variability that can shift peak readings by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology places normal highs near 28 °C, so current conditions reflect slightly cooler-than-average advection. Traders are weighting the most probable outcomes accordingly while awaiting the next model cycles and updated observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Weather model ensembles for Istanbul on August 31 indicate a narrow range of possible daily maxima centered near 26–27 °C, driven by uncertain timing of a weak frontal passage and variable low-level moisture from the Sea of Marmara. Short-range guidance from global and regional models shows modest spread in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with urban heat-island effects and Bosphorus sea-breeze circulation adding local variability that can shift peak readings by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology places normal highs near 28 °C, so current conditions reflect slightly cooler-than-average advection. Traders are weighting the most probable outcomes accordingly while awaiting the next model cycles and updated observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions