**Recent northerly airflow and associated cooling have positioned 26°C as the leading market outcome for Istanbul's highest temperature on August 30, with 27°C and 25°C close behind.** After warmer conditions earlier in the week, a shift to northerly winds introduced cooler, drier air and scattered showers or thunderstorms on August 28–29, dropping daytime maxima to around 25–26°C in many forecasts. This established a baseline that traders appear to be extending into the weekend. Model guidance and official outlooks then show stabilization under partly to mostly sunny skies on August 30, with highs recovering modestly into the mid-to-upper 20s °C range (roughly 27–29°C in several sources) but limited by persistent northerly flow and moderate winds. This keeps 26°C (48%) and 27°C (31%) as the dominant implied probabilities, reflecting consensus around a typical late-August maximum tempered by the recent frontal influence rather than a return to peak summer heat. Lower outcomes like 25°C retain meaningful support (27.5%) amid forecast spread and possible wind enhancement, while probabilities for 28°C or above remain low given the established cooler regime. Resolution will hinge on the precise afternoon peak reported by official stations, with final model runs and observations over the next 48 hours likely to refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 30?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 30?
26°C 48%
27°C 31%
25°C 28%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
22°C or below
6%
23°C
6%
24°C
2%
25°C
28%
26°C
48%
27°C
31%
28°C
9%
29°C
6%
30°C
6%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
4%
26°C 48%
27°C 31%
25°C 28%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
6%
24°C
$20 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$7 Vol.
48%
27°C
$0 Vol.
31%
28°C
$0 Vol.
9%
29°C
$0 Vol.
6%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C
$0 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent northerly airflow and associated cooling have positioned 26°C as the leading market outcome for Istanbul's highest temperature on August 30, with 27°C and 25°C close behind.**
After warmer conditions earlier in the week, a shift to northerly winds introduced cooler, drier air and scattered showers or thunderstorms on August 28–29, dropping daytime maxima to around 25–26°C in many forecasts. This established a baseline that traders appear to be extending into the weekend. Model guidance and official outlooks then show stabilization under partly to mostly sunny skies on August 30, with highs recovering modestly into the mid-to-upper 20s °C range (roughly 27–29°C in several sources) but limited by persistent northerly flow and moderate winds.
This keeps 26°C (48%) and 27°C (31%) as the dominant implied probabilities, reflecting consensus around a typical late-August maximum tempered by the recent frontal influence rather than a return to peak summer heat. Lower outcomes like 25°C retain meaningful support (27.5%) amid forecast spread and possible wind enhancement, while probabilities for 28°C or above remain low given the established cooler regime. Resolution will hinge on the precise afternoon peak reported by official stations, with final model runs and observations over the next 48 hours likely to refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$27End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent northerly airflow and associated cooling have positioned 26°C as the leading market outcome for Istanbul's highest temperature on August 30, with 27°C and 25°C close behind.**
After warmer conditions earlier in the week, a shift to northerly winds introduced cooler, drier air and scattered showers or thunderstorms on August 28–29, dropping daytime maxima to around 25–26°C in many forecasts. This established a baseline that traders appear to be extending into the weekend. Model guidance and official outlooks then show stabilization under partly to mostly sunny skies on August 30, with highs recovering modestly into the mid-to-upper 20s °C range (roughly 27–29°C in several sources) but limited by persistent northerly flow and moderate winds.
This keeps 26°C (48%) and 27°C (31%) as the dominant implied probabilities, reflecting consensus around a typical late-August maximum tempered by the recent frontal influence rather than a return to peak summer heat. Lower outcomes like 25°C retain meaningful support (27.5%) amid forecast spread and possible wind enhancement, while probabilities for 28°C or above remain low given the established cooler regime. Resolution will hinge on the precise afternoon peak reported by official stations, with final model runs and observations over the next 48 hours likely to refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent northerly airflow and associated cooling have positioned 26°C as the leading market outcome for Istanbul's highest temperature on August 30, with 27°C and 25°C close behind.** After warmer conditions earlier in the week, a shift to northerly winds introduced cooler, drier air and scattered showers or thunderstorms on August 28–29, dropping daytime maxima to around 25–26°C in many forecasts. This established a baseline that traders appear to be extending into the weekend. Model guidance and official outlooks then show stabilization under partly to mostly sunny skies on August 30, with highs recovering modestly into the mid-to-upper 20s °C range (roughly 27–29°C in several sources) but limited by persistent northerly flow and moderate winds. This keeps 26°C (48%) and 27°C (31%) as the dominant implied probabilities, reflecting consensus around a typical late-August maximum tempered by the recent frontal influence rather than a return to peak summer heat. Lower outcomes like 25°C retain meaningful support (27.5%) amid forecast spread and possible wind enhancement, while probabilities for 28°C or above remain low given the established cooler regime. Resolution will hinge on the precise afternoon peak reported by official stations, with final model runs and observations over the next 48 hours likely to refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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