**Recent forecasts for Madrid on August 30, 2026, show a consensus maximum temperature in the low 30s Celsius under clear, stable conditions, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C (55.5%) and 34°C (29.0%).** Multiple models, including those referenced by the UK Met Office and WeatherBug, indicate a high near 32°C, with some guidance reaching 33–34°C amid light southwesterly winds and minimal cloud cover that favors strong daytime solar heating. Madrid’s continental Mediterranean climate amplifies this setup: after a cooler spell (highs around 25°C or below on August 27–28), warmer air advection under high pressure is expected to push temperatures back toward seasonal norms or slightly above. Historical averages for the date hover near 30–31°C, but current model runs reflect modestly warmer conditions without precipitation or significant marine influence to moderate the peak. Traders appear to price in limited upside risk from model variability or last-minute shifts, while discounting extremes above 35°C or below 32°C given the short time horizon and consistent guidance. The next AEMET updates and any revised model runs in the final 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any probability adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
33°C 55%
34°C 29%
32°C 18%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
3%
29°C
4%
30°C
7%
31°C
8%
32°C
18%
33°C
55%
34°C
29%
35°C
3%
36°C
6%
37°C
3%
38°C or higher
1%
33°C 55%
34°C 29%
32°C 18%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
7%
31°C
$20 Vol.
8%
32°C
$5 Vol.
18%
33°C
$69 Vol.
55%
34°C
$43 Vol.
29%
35°C
$35 Vol.
3%
36°C
$0 Vol.
6%
37°C
$0 Vol.
3%
38°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Madrid on August 30, 2026, show a consensus maximum temperature in the low 30s Celsius under clear, stable conditions, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C (55.5%) and 34°C (29.0%).** Multiple models, including those referenced by the UK Met Office and WeatherBug, indicate a high near 32°C, with some guidance reaching 33–34°C amid light southwesterly winds and minimal cloud cover that favors strong daytime solar heating.
Madrid’s continental Mediterranean climate amplifies this setup: after a cooler spell (highs around 25°C or below on August 27–28), warmer air advection under high pressure is expected to push temperatures back toward seasonal norms or slightly above. Historical averages for the date hover near 30–31°C, but current model runs reflect modestly warmer conditions without precipitation or significant marine influence to moderate the peak.
Traders appear to price in limited upside risk from model variability or last-minute shifts, while discounting extremes above 35°C or below 32°C given the short time horizon and consistent guidance. The next AEMET updates and any revised model runs in the final 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any probability adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$172End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts for Madrid on August 30, 2026, show a consensus maximum temperature in the low 30s Celsius under clear, stable conditions, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C (55.5%) and 34°C (29.0%).** Multiple models, including those referenced by the UK Met Office and WeatherBug, indicate a high near 32°C, with some guidance reaching 33–34°C amid light southwesterly winds and minimal cloud cover that favors strong daytime solar heating.
Madrid’s continental Mediterranean climate amplifies this setup: after a cooler spell (highs around 25°C or below on August 27–28), warmer air advection under high pressure is expected to push temperatures back toward seasonal norms or slightly above. Historical averages for the date hover near 30–31°C, but current model runs reflect modestly warmer conditions without precipitation or significant marine influence to moderate the peak.
Traders appear to price in limited upside risk from model variability or last-minute shifts, while discounting extremes above 35°C or below 32°C given the short time horizon and consistent guidance. The next AEMET updates and any revised model runs in the final 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any probability adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$172End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts for Madrid on August 30, 2026, show a consensus maximum temperature in the low 30s Celsius under clear, stable conditions, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C (55.5%) and 34°C (29.0%).** Multiple models, including those referenced by the UK Met Office and WeatherBug, indicate a high near 32°C, with some guidance reaching 33–34°C amid light southwesterly winds and minimal cloud cover that favors strong daytime solar heating. Madrid’s continental Mediterranean climate amplifies this setup: after a cooler spell (highs around 25°C or below on August 27–28), warmer air advection under high pressure is expected to push temperatures back toward seasonal norms or slightly above. Historical averages for the date hover near 30–31°C, but current model runs reflect modestly warmer conditions without precipitation or significant marine influence to moderate the peak. Traders appear to price in limited upside risk from model variability or last-minute shifts, while discounting extremes above 35°C or below 32°C given the short time horizon and consistent guidance. The next AEMET updates and any revised model runs in the final 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any probability adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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