**Forecast models and official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) place Incheon’s maximum temperature for August 28, 2026, in a narrow 29–31°C range, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 30°C (46.5%) followed by 31°C and 29°C.** Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered showers or thunderstorms expected from morning through evening are the dominant factors capping daytime heating, consistent with late-August climatology when Seoul/Incheon averages hover near 30–31°C. Coastal sea-breeze effects at Incheon further moderate peaks relative to inland areas. Recent KMA briefings and ensemble outputs show only minor model spread, with most runs converging on 29–30°C under the influence of an approaching frontal system. Traders appear to have incorporated this consensus, assigning low probability to outliers above 32°C or below 28°C given the limited upside from reduced insolation and the narrow historical variability at this time of year. Updated model runs and any shifts in rain timing remain the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 28?
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 28?
30°C 48%
31°C 24%
29°C 18%
32°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
18%
30°C
48%
31°C
24%
32°C
6%
33°C or higher
1%
30°C 48%
31°C 24%
29°C 18%
32°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
23°C or below
$149 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$205 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$260 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$834 Vol.
2%
28°C
$1,071 Vol.
5%
29°C
$1,686 Vol.
18%
30°C
$598 Vol.
48%
31°C
$1,564 Vol.
24%
32°C
$1,542 Vol.
6%
33°C or higher
$672 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) place Incheon’s maximum temperature for August 28, 2026, in a narrow 29–31°C range, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 30°C (46.5%) followed by 31°C and 29°C.**
Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered showers or thunderstorms expected from morning through evening are the dominant factors capping daytime heating, consistent with late-August climatology when Seoul/Incheon averages hover near 30–31°C. Coastal sea-breeze effects at Incheon further moderate peaks relative to inland areas. Recent KMA briefings and ensemble outputs show only minor model spread, with most runs converging on 29–30°C under the influence of an approaching frontal system. Traders appear to have incorporated this consensus, assigning low probability to outliers above 32°C or below 28°C given the limited upside from reduced insolation and the narrow historical variability at this time of year. Updated model runs and any shifts in rain timing remain the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,712End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) place Incheon’s maximum temperature for August 28, 2026, in a narrow 29–31°C range, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 30°C (46.5%) followed by 31°C and 29°C.**
Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered showers or thunderstorms expected from morning through evening are the dominant factors capping daytime heating, consistent with late-August climatology when Seoul/Incheon averages hover near 30–31°C. Coastal sea-breeze effects at Incheon further moderate peaks relative to inland areas. Recent KMA briefings and ensemble outputs show only minor model spread, with most runs converging on 29–30°C under the influence of an approaching frontal system. Traders appear to have incorporated this consensus, assigning low probability to outliers above 32°C or below 28°C given the limited upside from reduced insolation and the narrow historical variability at this time of year. Updated model runs and any shifts in rain timing remain the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,712End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) place Incheon’s maximum temperature for August 28, 2026, in a narrow 29–31°C range, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 30°C (46.5%) followed by 31°C and 29°C.** Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered showers or thunderstorms expected from morning through evening are the dominant factors capping daytime heating, consistent with late-August climatology when Seoul/Incheon averages hover near 30–31°C. Coastal sea-breeze effects at Incheon further moderate peaks relative to inland areas. Recent KMA briefings and ensemble outputs show only minor model spread, with most runs converging on 29–30°C under the influence of an approaching frontal system. Traders appear to have incorporated this consensus, assigning low probability to outliers above 32°C or below 28°C given the limited upside from reduced insolation and the narrow historical variability at this time of year. Updated model runs and any shifts in rain timing remain the key near-term catalysts for probability adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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