Recent monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Metro Manila are the main factors keeping trader sentiment clustered around a 29–31°C peak on August 30. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models show persistent southwest monsoon flow (Habagat) producing widespread cloudiness that limits daytime heating, consistent with late-August climatology where average highs reach about 31°C but often fall to 29–30°C under active monsoon conditions. Minor model differences in timing and intensity of showers versus brief sunny breaks explain the tight spread between the leading 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes, while lower-probability extremes reflect the low likelihood of significant clearing or stronger heating. Updated PAGASA and global model runs through the weekend will refine the precise maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 30?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 30?
30°C 26%
31°C 20%
32°C 19%
29°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
5%
28°C
13%
29°C
18%
30°C
26%
31°C
20%
32°C
19%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 26%
31°C 20%
32°C 19%
29°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
1%
27°C
$20 Vol.
5%
28°C
$2 Vol.
13%
29°C
$0 Vol.
18%
30°C
$0 Vol.
26%
31°C
$0 Vol.
20%
32°C
$0 Vol.
19%
33°C
$0 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$11 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Metro Manila are the main factors keeping trader sentiment clustered around a 29–31°C peak on August 30. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models show persistent southwest monsoon flow (Habagat) producing widespread cloudiness that limits daytime heating, consistent with late-August climatology where average highs reach about 31°C but often fall to 29–30°C under active monsoon conditions. Minor model differences in timing and intensity of showers versus brief sunny breaks explain the tight spread between the leading 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes, while lower-probability extremes reflect the low likelihood of significant clearing or stronger heating. Updated PAGASA and global model runs through the weekend will refine the precise maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$33End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Metro Manila are the main factors keeping trader sentiment clustered around a 29–31°C peak on August 30. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models show persistent southwest monsoon flow (Habagat) producing widespread cloudiness that limits daytime heating, consistent with late-August climatology where average highs reach about 31°C but often fall to 29–30°C under active monsoon conditions. Minor model differences in timing and intensity of showers versus brief sunny breaks explain the tight spread between the leading 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes, while lower-probability extremes reflect the low likelihood of significant clearing or stronger heating. Updated PAGASA and global model runs through the weekend will refine the precise maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms over Metro Manila are the main factors keeping trader sentiment clustered around a 29–31°C peak on August 30. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models show persistent southwest monsoon flow (Habagat) producing widespread cloudiness that limits daytime heating, consistent with late-August climatology where average highs reach about 31°C but often fall to 29–30°C under active monsoon conditions. Minor model differences in timing and intensity of showers versus brief sunny breaks explain the tight spread between the leading 30°C, 31°C, and 29°C outcomes, while lower-probability extremes reflect the low likelihood of significant clearing or stronger heating. Updated PAGASA and global model runs through the weekend will refine the precise maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions