Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeasterly flow of cooler marine air have suppressed daytime heating across the Tokyo region, keeping observed maxima near 24–25 °C according to JMA and international model guidance. The overwhelming 99.7 % market-implied probability for exactly 27 °C as the daily high reflects trader assessment that late-day clearing or localized warming could still push the official Tokyo station reading to that threshold before midnight. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with only modest uncertainty from timing of showers or slight variations in boundary-layer mixing. A stronger-than-expected cold pool or prolonged heavy rain remains the main scenario that could cap readings below 26 °C and shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
27°C 99.8%
28°C <1%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
$67,213 Vol.
$67,213 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.8%
28°C <1%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
$67,213 Vol.
$67,213 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
22°C or below
$1,251 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,191 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,725 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$4,377 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$24,713 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$11,717 Vol.
100%
28°C
$7,135 Vol.
1%
29°C
$5,317 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,868 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$2,050 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$3,868 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeasterly flow of cooler marine air have suppressed daytime heating across the Tokyo region, keeping observed maxima near 24–25 °C according to JMA and international model guidance. The overwhelming 99.7 % market-implied probability for exactly 27 °C as the daily high reflects trader assessment that late-day clearing or localized warming could still push the official Tokyo station reading to that threshold before midnight. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with only modest uncertainty from timing of showers or slight variations in boundary-layer mixing. A stronger-than-expected cold pool or prolonged heavy rain remains the main scenario that could cap readings below 26 °C and shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$67,213End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeasterly flow of cooler marine air have suppressed daytime heating across the Tokyo region, keeping observed maxima near 24–25 °C according to JMA and international model guidance. The overwhelming 99.7 % market-implied probability for exactly 27 °C as the daily high reflects trader assessment that late-day clearing or localized warming could still push the official Tokyo station reading to that threshold before midnight. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with only modest uncertainty from timing of showers or slight variations in boundary-layer mixing. A stronger-than-expected cold pool or prolonged heavy rain remains the main scenario that could cap readings below 26 °C and shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67,213End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover, widespread rain, and northeasterly flow of cooler marine air have suppressed daytime heating across the Tokyo region, keeping observed maxima near 24–25 °C according to JMA and international model guidance. The overwhelming 99.7 % market-implied probability for exactly 27 °C as the daily high reflects trader assessment that late-day clearing or localized warming could still push the official Tokyo station reading to that threshold before midnight. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with only modest uncertainty from timing of showers or slight variations in boundary-layer mixing. A stronger-than-expected cold pool or prolonged heavy rain remains the main scenario that could cap readings below 26 °C and shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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