**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northeasterly winds are driving Tokyo’s overnight minimum toward the low-20s Celsius on August 29, 2026.** Official forecasts and recent observations show daytime highs limited to roughly 24–26 °C amid heavy cloud and steady precipitation, while radiative cooling overnight is moderated by high humidity (around 90 %) and wind speeds of 5–10 km/h from the north-northeast. Model guidance consistently points to a minimum near 20–21 °C, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21 °C at 50.5 % and bracket 20–22 °C outcomes in the top tier. Recent shifts in steering patterns have kept the region under cooler, moister maritime air rather than typical late-August subtropical highs, producing the first notably subdued temperature profile in several days. With the day’s resolution window closing soon, traders are weighting the latest observational trends and short-range model consensus heavily, leaving only modest probability on sub-20 °C or 23 °C-plus extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
20°C 21%
19°C or below 8%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
8%
20°C
21%
21°C
39%
22°C
40%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
20°C 21%
19°C or below 8%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
$477 Vol.
8%
20°C
$180 Vol.
21%
21°C
$225 Vol.
39%
22°C
$591 Vol.
40%
23°C
$1,527 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,003 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$606 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$532 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$288 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$278 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$212 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northeasterly winds are driving Tokyo’s overnight minimum toward the low-20s Celsius on August 29, 2026.** Official forecasts and recent observations show daytime highs limited to roughly 24–26 °C amid heavy cloud and steady precipitation, while radiative cooling overnight is moderated by high humidity (around 90 %) and wind speeds of 5–10 km/h from the north-northeast. Model guidance consistently points to a minimum near 20–21 °C, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21 °C at 50.5 % and bracket 20–22 °C outcomes in the top tier.
Recent shifts in steering patterns have kept the region under cooler, moister maritime air rather than typical late-August subtropical highs, producing the first notably subdued temperature profile in several days. With the day’s resolution window closing soon, traders are weighting the latest observational trends and short-range model consensus heavily, leaving only modest probability on sub-20 °C or 23 °C-plus extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,920End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northeasterly winds are driving Tokyo’s overnight minimum toward the low-20s Celsius on August 29, 2026.** Official forecasts and recent observations show daytime highs limited to roughly 24–26 °C amid heavy cloud and steady precipitation, while radiative cooling overnight is moderated by high humidity (around 90 %) and wind speeds of 5–10 km/h from the north-northeast. Model guidance consistently points to a minimum near 20–21 °C, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21 °C at 50.5 % and bracket 20–22 °C outcomes in the top tier.
Recent shifts in steering patterns have kept the region under cooler, moister maritime air rather than typical late-August subtropical highs, producing the first notably subdued temperature profile in several days. With the day’s resolution window closing soon, traders are weighting the latest observational trends and short-range model consensus heavily, leaving only modest probability on sub-20 °C or 23 °C-plus extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,920End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent cloud cover, widespread rainfall, and northeasterly winds are driving Tokyo’s overnight minimum toward the low-20s Celsius on August 29, 2026.** Official forecasts and recent observations show daytime highs limited to roughly 24–26 °C amid heavy cloud and steady precipitation, while radiative cooling overnight is moderated by high humidity (around 90 %) and wind speeds of 5–10 km/h from the north-northeast. Model guidance consistently points to a minimum near 20–21 °C, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21 °C at 50.5 % and bracket 20–22 °C outcomes in the top tier. Recent shifts in steering patterns have kept the region under cooler, moister maritime air rather than typical late-August subtropical highs, producing the first notably subdued temperature profile in several days. With the day’s resolution window closing soon, traders are weighting the latest observational trends and short-range model consensus heavily, leaving only modest probability on sub-20 °C or 23 °C-plus extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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