Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on August 30 most likely between 20–22°C, driven by overnight radiative cooling under persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and elevated dew points near 19–20°C from recent rainfall. This setup limits clear-sky cooling while urban heat island effects add slight upward bias, explaining the tight market split between 21°C and 22°C implied probabilities. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 23–24°C, but the current cooler, more humid air mass has shifted expectations downward. Final resolution hinges on tonight’s observational data and any last model adjustments before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
22°C 42%
21°C 37%
23°C 11%
20°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
9%
21°C
37%
22°C
42%
23°C
11%
24°C
5%
25°C
2%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 42%
21°C 37%
23°C 11%
20°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
$223 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$80 Vol.
1%
19°C
$57 Vol.
5%
20°C
$87 Vol.
9%
21°C
$374 Vol.
37%
22°C
$972 Vol.
42%
23°C
$350 Vol.
11%
24°C
$129 Vol.
5%
25°C
$115 Vol.
2%
26°C
$114 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$119 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on August 30 most likely between 20–22°C, driven by overnight radiative cooling under persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and elevated dew points near 19–20°C from recent rainfall. This setup limits clear-sky cooling while urban heat island effects add slight upward bias, explaining the tight market split between 21°C and 22°C implied probabilities. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 23–24°C, but the current cooler, more humid air mass has shifted expectations downward. Final resolution hinges on tonight’s observational data and any last model adjustments before sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,621End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on August 30 most likely between 20–22°C, driven by overnight radiative cooling under persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and elevated dew points near 19–20°C from recent rainfall. This setup limits clear-sky cooling while urban heat island effects add slight upward bias, explaining the tight market split between 21°C and 22°C implied probabilities. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 23–24°C, but the current cooler, more humid air mass has shifted expectations downward. Final resolution hinges on tonight’s observational data and any last model adjustments before sunrise.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,621End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on August 30 most likely between 20–22°C, driven by overnight radiative cooling under persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and elevated dew points near 19–20°C from recent rainfall. This setup limits clear-sky cooling while urban heat island effects add slight upward bias, explaining the tight market split between 21°C and 22°C implied probabilities. Historical August climatology shows typical lows near 23–24°C, but the current cooler, more humid air mass has shifted expectations downward. Final resolution hinges on tonight’s observational data and any last model adjustments before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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