**Official HKO forecasts point to a highest temperature of 29–30°C on August 31, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (30°C at 28.5%, 29°C at 25%).** A broad trough of low pressure over the South China Sea and Guangdong coast is driving unsettled conditions, with mainly cloudy skies, occasional showers, and squally thunderstorms expected. These reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima below the late-August climatological average of ~31°C. Model consensus and HKO guidance show a daytime range of 26–30°C, with high humidity (75–95%) and rain probabilities of 70–80% further limiting heat buildup. A transition toward drier northerly flow begins around September 1, but it arrives too late to meaningfully raise August 31 temperatures. The tight clustering of probabilities around 29–30°C reflects this narrow, rain-suppressed outcome window, while lower odds for 32°C+ or sub-28°C capture residual model spread and any unexpected clearing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 31?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 31?
30°C 28%
34°C or higher 25%
29°C 25%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
7%
28°C
8%
29°C
25%
30°C
28%
31°C
11%
32°C
16%
33°C
5%
34°C or higher
25%
30°C 28%
34°C or higher 25%
29°C 25%
32°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$10 Vol.
1%
27°C
$0 Vol.
7%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C
$0 Vol.
25%
30°C
$29 Vol.
28%
31°C
$27 Vol.
11%
32°C
$0 Vol.
16%
33°C
$0 Vol.
5%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official HKO forecasts point to a highest temperature of 29–30°C on August 31, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (30°C at 28.5%, 29°C at 25%).** A broad trough of low pressure over the South China Sea and Guangdong coast is driving unsettled conditions, with mainly cloudy skies, occasional showers, and squally thunderstorms expected. These reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima below the late-August climatological average of ~31°C.
Model consensus and HKO guidance show a daytime range of 26–30°C, with high humidity (75–95%) and rain probabilities of 70–80% further limiting heat buildup. A transition toward drier northerly flow begins around September 1, but it arrives too late to meaningfully raise August 31 temperatures. The tight clustering of probabilities around 29–30°C reflects this narrow, rain-suppressed outcome window, while lower odds for 32°C+ or sub-28°C capture residual model spread and any unexpected clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$65End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official HKO forecasts point to a highest temperature of 29–30°C on August 31, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (30°C at 28.5%, 29°C at 25%).** A broad trough of low pressure over the South China Sea and Guangdong coast is driving unsettled conditions, with mainly cloudy skies, occasional showers, and squally thunderstorms expected. These reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima below the late-August climatological average of ~31°C.
Model consensus and HKO guidance show a daytime range of 26–30°C, with high humidity (75–95%) and rain probabilities of 70–80% further limiting heat buildup. A transition toward drier northerly flow begins around September 1, but it arrives too late to meaningfully raise August 31 temperatures. The tight clustering of probabilities around 29–30°C reflects this narrow, rain-suppressed outcome window, while lower odds for 32°C+ or sub-28°C capture residual model spread and any unexpected clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$65End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official HKO forecasts point to a highest temperature of 29–30°C on August 31, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (30°C at 28.5%, 29°C at 25%).** A broad trough of low pressure over the South China Sea and Guangdong coast is driving unsettled conditions, with mainly cloudy skies, occasional showers, and squally thunderstorms expected. These reduce solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima below the late-August climatological average of ~31°C. Model consensus and HKO guidance show a daytime range of 26–30°C, with high humidity (75–95%) and rain probabilities of 70–80% further limiting heat buildup. A transition toward drier northerly flow begins around September 1, but it arrives too late to meaningfully raise August 31 temperatures. The tight clustering of probabilities around 29–30°C reflects this narrow, rain-suppressed outcome window, while lower odds for 32°C+ or sub-28°C capture residual model spread and any unexpected clearing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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