The Illinois 9th district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+19 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. Longtime incumbent Jan Schakowsky’s retirement created an open seat, but Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary against a crowded field, while Republican John Elleson advanced unopposed in his primary. The district’s northern Chicago and North Shore suburbs have favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Limited Republican fundraising and organizational presence further reinforce the current pricing. A major national partisan wave, late scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or sharp turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this district suggest limited scope for reversal before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-09 House Election Winner
IL-09 House Election Winner
$31,607 Vol.
$31,607 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$31,607 Vol.
$31,607 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,353 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$14,254 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 9th district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+19 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. Longtime incumbent Jan Schakowsky’s retirement created an open seat, but Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary against a crowded field, while Republican John Elleson advanced unopposed in his primary. The district’s northern Chicago and North Shore suburbs have favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Limited Republican fundraising and organizational presence further reinforce the current pricing. A major national partisan wave, late scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or sharp turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this district suggest limited scope for reversal before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$31,607End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 9th district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+19 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. Longtime incumbent Jan Schakowsky’s retirement created an open seat, but Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary against a crowded field, while Republican John Elleson advanced unopposed in his primary. The district’s northern Chicago and North Shore suburbs have favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Limited Republican fundraising and organizational presence further reinforce the current pricing. A major national partisan wave, late scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or sharp turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this district suggest limited scope for reversal before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,607End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 9th district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in a D+19 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. Longtime incumbent Jan Schakowsky’s retirement created an open seat, but Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary against a crowded field, while Republican John Elleson advanced unopposed in his primary. The district’s northern Chicago and North Shore suburbs have favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Limited Republican fundraising and organizational presence further reinforce the current pricing. A major national partisan wave, late scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or sharp turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this district suggest limited scope for reversal before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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