Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down from July’s 55.6 peak, anchors trader expectations for September around the mid-50s amid ongoing expansion for the eighth straight month. Moderating new orders, steady production, and softer employment growth reflect headwinds from elevated input prices near 71, supply-chain delays tied to Middle East tensions and tariffs, and AI-driven commodity demand. Low customer inventories and domestic restocking needs provide support, while the closely matched probabilities across 53–56 ranges highlight uncertainty over whether momentum stabilizes near recent levels or eases further ahead of the October 1 release. Aggregated trader positioning prices in these crosscurrents without assuming a specific outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55.0 to 55.9 28%
53.0 to 53.9 26%
56.0 to 56.9 23%
54.0 to 54.9 17%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
<50.0
3%
50.0 to 50.9
1%
51.0 to 51.9
5%
52.0 to 52.9
15%
53.0 to 53.9
26%
54.0 to 54.9
17%
55.0 to 55.9
28%
56.0 to 56.9
23%
57.0 to 57.9
12%
58.0+
5%
55.0 to 55.9 28%
53.0 to 53.9 26%
56.0 to 56.9 23%
54.0 to 54.9 17%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
<50.0
$160 Vol.
3%
50.0 to 50.9
$885 Vol.
1%
51.0 to 51.9
$616 Vol.
5%
52.0 to 52.9
$34 Vol.
15%
53.0 to 53.9
$18 Vol.
26%
54.0 to 54.9
$34 Vol.
17%
55.0 to 55.9
$33 Vol.
28%
56.0 to 56.9
$18 Vol.
23%
57.0 to 57.9
$17 Vol.
12%
58.0+
$169 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down from July’s 55.6 peak, anchors trader expectations for September around the mid-50s amid ongoing expansion for the eighth straight month. Moderating new orders, steady production, and softer employment growth reflect headwinds from elevated input prices near 71, supply-chain delays tied to Middle East tensions and tariffs, and AI-driven commodity demand. Low customer inventories and domestic restocking needs provide support, while the closely matched probabilities across 53–56 ranges highlight uncertainty over whether momentum stabilizes near recent levels or eases further ahead of the October 1 release. Aggregated trader positioning prices in these crosscurrents without assuming a specific outcome.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$1,983End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down from July’s 55.6 peak, anchors trader expectations for September around the mid-50s amid ongoing expansion for the eighth straight month. Moderating new orders, steady production, and softer employment growth reflect headwinds from elevated input prices near 71, supply-chain delays tied to Middle East tensions and tariffs, and AI-driven commodity demand. Low customer inventories and domestic restocking needs provide support, while the closely matched probabilities across 53–56 ranges highlight uncertainty over whether momentum stabilizes near recent levels or eases further ahead of the October 1 release. Aggregated trader positioning prices in these crosscurrents without assuming a specific outcome.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,983End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down from July’s 55.6 peak, anchors trader expectations for September around the mid-50s amid ongoing expansion for the eighth straight month. Moderating new orders, steady production, and softer employment growth reflect headwinds from elevated input prices near 71, supply-chain delays tied to Middle East tensions and tariffs, and AI-driven commodity demand. Low customer inventories and domestic restocking needs provide support, while the closely matched probabilities across 53–56 ranges highlight uncertainty over whether momentum stabilizes near recent levels or eases further ahead of the October 1 release. Aggregated trader positioning prices in these crosscurrents without assuming a specific outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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