Official National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s for Austin on September 8, driven by a stable high-pressure pattern, southerly winds, and elevated dew points that limit radiational cooling under mostly clear skies. This setup follows recent hot days with highs near 99°F and heat indices above 105°F, keeping minimum temperatures well above the early-September climatological average of around 70°F. Subtle variations in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the exact low by a degree or two across observation sites, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 74–79°F ranges. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the final reading before midnight resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 8?
74-75°F 31%
76-77°F 28%
78-79°F 27%
72-73°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
69°F or below
8%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
28%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
2%
74-75°F 31%
76-77°F 28%
78-79°F 27%
72-73°F 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
69°F or below
$283 Vol.
8%
70-71°F
$12 Vol.
6%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
25%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
31%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
28%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
27%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
25%
82-83°F
$12 Vol.
13%
84-85°F
$12 Vol.
13%
86-87°F
$224 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$102 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s for Austin on September 8, driven by a stable high-pressure pattern, southerly winds, and elevated dew points that limit radiational cooling under mostly clear skies. This setup follows recent hot days with highs near 99°F and heat indices above 105°F, keeping minimum temperatures well above the early-September climatological average of around 70°F. Subtle variations in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the exact low by a degree or two across observation sites, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 74–79°F ranges. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the final reading before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$646End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s for Austin on September 8, driven by a stable high-pressure pattern, southerly winds, and elevated dew points that limit radiational cooling under mostly clear skies. This setup follows recent hot days with highs near 99°F and heat indices above 105°F, keeping minimum temperatures well above the early-September climatological average of around 70°F. Subtle variations in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the exact low by a degree or two across observation sites, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 74–79°F ranges. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the final reading before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$646End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus point to overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s for Austin on September 8, driven by a stable high-pressure pattern, southerly winds, and elevated dew points that limit radiational cooling under mostly clear skies. This setup follows recent hot days with highs near 99°F and heat indices above 105°F, keeping minimum temperatures well above the early-September climatological average of around 70°F. Subtle variations in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the exact low by a degree or two across observation sites, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 74–79°F ranges. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the final reading before midnight resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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