**Recent cold air advection over central Argentina, following an unusually chilly weekend with minima near 5°C, has elevated trader focus on sub-6°C outcomes for Buenos Aires on September 9, supporting the 62% implied probability for 5°C or below.** Ensemble guidance from global models shows a moderating northeast flow ahead of a weak frontal passage, with overnight lows most likely stabilizing between 7–9°C under partly cloudy skies—consistent with climatological September minima around 10°C but tempered by lingering cool air. This uncertainty range, plus potential model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, underpins the clustered probabilities around 6–8°C and the secondary 46.5% on 15°C or higher if daytime heating or urban heat-island effects prove stronger than anticipated. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and next ECMWF/GFS runs will be key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 9?
15°C or higher 95%
5°C or below 61%
6°C 49%
8°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
5°C or below
61%
6°C
49%
7°C
27%
8°C
49%
9°C
26%
10°C
26%
11°C
49%
12°C
20%
13°C
49%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
95%
15°C or higher 95%
5°C or below 61%
6°C 49%
8°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
61%
6°C
$0 Vol.
49%
7°C
$0 Vol.
27%
8°C
$0 Vol.
49%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
49%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cold air advection over central Argentina, following an unusually chilly weekend with minima near 5°C, has elevated trader focus on sub-6°C outcomes for Buenos Aires on September 9, supporting the 62% implied probability for 5°C or below.**
Ensemble guidance from global models shows a moderating northeast flow ahead of a weak frontal passage, with overnight lows most likely stabilizing between 7–9°C under partly cloudy skies—consistent with climatological September minima around 10°C but tempered by lingering cool air. This uncertainty range, plus potential model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, underpins the clustered probabilities around 6–8°C and the secondary 46.5% on 15°C or higher if daytime heating or urban heat-island effects prove stronger than anticipated. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and next ECMWF/GFS runs will be key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cold air advection over central Argentina, following an unusually chilly weekend with minima near 5°C, has elevated trader focus on sub-6°C outcomes for Buenos Aires on September 9, supporting the 62% implied probability for 5°C or below.**
Ensemble guidance from global models shows a moderating northeast flow ahead of a weak frontal passage, with overnight lows most likely stabilizing between 7–9°C under partly cloudy skies—consistent with climatological September minima around 10°C but tempered by lingering cool air. This uncertainty range, plus potential model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, underpins the clustered probabilities around 6–8°C and the secondary 46.5% on 15°C or higher if daytime heating or urban heat-island effects prove stronger than anticipated. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and next ECMWF/GFS runs will be key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent cold air advection over central Argentina, following an unusually chilly weekend with minima near 5°C, has elevated trader focus on sub-6°C outcomes for Buenos Aires on September 9, supporting the 62% implied probability for 5°C or below.** Ensemble guidance from global models shows a moderating northeast flow ahead of a weak frontal passage, with overnight lows most likely stabilizing between 7–9°C under partly cloudy skies—consistent with climatological September minima around 10°C but tempered by lingering cool air. This uncertainty range, plus potential model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, underpins the clustered probabilities around 6–8°C and the secondary 46.5% on 15°C or higher if daytime heating or urban heat-island effects prove stronger than anticipated. Official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and next ECMWF/GFS runs will be key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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