**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other sources project a daily high near 91°F for Houston on September 9, 2026, with a 70% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.** This aligns closely with the market's leading 90-91°F bin at 38.5% implied probability, followed by 88-89°F (23%) and 92-93°F (19%). Persistent early-September heat and humidity across southeast Texas have produced recent daily highs in the low-to-mid 90s, consistent with climatological averages of about 90.5°F for the date. Light easterly winds and high moisture content support strong instability, favoring convective development that typically peaks in the afternoon and can suppress maximum temperatures through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Heat indices remain elevated near 106°F, but the storm pattern introduces modest downside risk to the high. No significant model shifts have occurred in the latest runs, keeping the consensus tightly clustered around 91°F. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily while pricing in a small probability of either drier conditions allowing a 92-93°F reading or more widespread convection holding the high to 88-89°F. Resolution will hinge on the observed maximum at official reporting stations before any thunderstorm impacts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 9?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 9?
90-91°F 39%
88-89°F 24%
92-93°F 21%
86-87°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
81°F or below
2%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
24%
90-91°F
39%
92-93°F
21%
94-95°F
8%
96-97°F
4%
98-99°F
2%
100°F or higher
2%
90-91°F 39%
88-89°F 24%
92-93°F 21%
86-87°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
81°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
3%
84-85°F
$12 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
11%
88-89°F
$46 Vol.
24%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
39%
92-93°F
$82 Vol.
21%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
8%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
4%
98-99°F
$0 Vol.
2%
100°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other sources project a daily high near 91°F for Houston on September 9, 2026, with a 70% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.** This aligns closely with the market's leading 90-91°F bin at 38.5% implied probability, followed by 88-89°F (23%) and 92-93°F (19%).
Persistent early-September heat and humidity across southeast Texas have produced recent daily highs in the low-to-mid 90s, consistent with climatological averages of about 90.5°F for the date. Light easterly winds and high moisture content support strong instability, favoring convective development that typically peaks in the afternoon and can suppress maximum temperatures through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Heat indices remain elevated near 106°F, but the storm pattern introduces modest downside risk to the high.
No significant model shifts have occurred in the latest runs, keeping the consensus tightly clustered around 91°F. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily while pricing in a small probability of either drier conditions allowing a 92-93°F reading or more widespread convection holding the high to 88-89°F. Resolution will hinge on the observed maximum at official reporting stations before any thunderstorm impacts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$140End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other sources project a daily high near 91°F for Houston on September 9, 2026, with a 70% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.** This aligns closely with the market's leading 90-91°F bin at 38.5% implied probability, followed by 88-89°F (23%) and 92-93°F (19%).
Persistent early-September heat and humidity across southeast Texas have produced recent daily highs in the low-to-mid 90s, consistent with climatological averages of about 90.5°F for the date. Light easterly winds and high moisture content support strong instability, favoring convective development that typically peaks in the afternoon and can suppress maximum temperatures through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Heat indices remain elevated near 106°F, but the storm pattern introduces modest downside risk to the high.
No significant model shifts have occurred in the latest runs, keeping the consensus tightly clustered around 91°F. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily while pricing in a small probability of either drier conditions allowing a 92-93°F reading or more widespread convection holding the high to 88-89°F. Resolution will hinge on the observed maximum at official reporting stations before any thunderstorm impacts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$140End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other sources project a daily high near 91°F for Houston on September 9, 2026, with a 70% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.** This aligns closely with the market's leading 90-91°F bin at 38.5% implied probability, followed by 88-89°F (23%) and 92-93°F (19%). Persistent early-September heat and humidity across southeast Texas have produced recent daily highs in the low-to-mid 90s, consistent with climatological averages of about 90.5°F for the date. Light easterly winds and high moisture content support strong instability, favoring convective development that typically peaks in the afternoon and can suppress maximum temperatures through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Heat indices remain elevated near 106°F, but the storm pattern introduces modest downside risk to the high. No significant model shifts have occurred in the latest runs, keeping the consensus tightly clustered around 91°F. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily while pricing in a small probability of either drier conditions allowing a 92-93°F reading or more widespread convection holding the high to 88-89°F. Resolution will hinge on the observed maximum at official reporting stations before any thunderstorm impacts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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