Short-term forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models is driving the tight clustering around 16–18°C for Madrid’s overnight low on August 31. Ensemble guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System shows modest spread in the strength and timing of a weak northwesterly flow that could advect slightly cooler maritime air across the central plateau, with minimum temperatures sensitive to boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and local radiational cooling under clear skies. Historical August climatology for Madrid places typical overnight lows near 17–19°C, providing a baseline against which current model solutions are being weighed. Fresh model runs and surface observations expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
16°C or below 56%
18°C 29%
17°C 27%
20°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
56%
17°C
27%
18°C
29%
19°C
13%
20°C
15%
21°C
2%
22°C
15%
23°C
12%
24°C
5%
25°C
7%
26°C or higher
7%
16°C or below 56%
18°C 29%
17°C 27%
20°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
56%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
29%
19°C
$20 Vol.
13%
20°C
$0 Vol.
15%
21°C
$0 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$0 Vol.
12%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
7%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models is driving the tight clustering around 16–18°C for Madrid’s overnight low on August 31. Ensemble guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System shows modest spread in the strength and timing of a weak northwesterly flow that could advect slightly cooler maritime air across the central plateau, with minimum temperatures sensitive to boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and local radiational cooling under clear skies. Historical August climatology for Madrid places typical overnight lows near 17–19°C, providing a baseline against which current model solutions are being weighed. Fresh model runs and surface observations expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models is driving the tight clustering around 16–18°C for Madrid’s overnight low on August 31. Ensemble guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System shows modest spread in the strength and timing of a weak northwesterly flow that could advect slightly cooler maritime air across the central plateau, with minimum temperatures sensitive to boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and local radiational cooling under clear skies. Historical August climatology for Madrid places typical overnight lows near 17–19°C, providing a baseline against which current model solutions are being weighed. Fresh model runs and surface observations expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models is driving the tight clustering around 16–18°C for Madrid’s overnight low on August 31. Ensemble guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System shows modest spread in the strength and timing of a weak northwesterly flow that could advect slightly cooler maritime air across the central plateau, with minimum temperatures sensitive to boundary-layer mixing, cloud cover, and local radiational cooling under clear skies. Historical August climatology for Madrid places typical overnight lows near 17–19°C, providing a baseline against which current model solutions are being weighed. Fresh model runs and surface observations expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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