**Clear skies and radiational cooling under northerly or light winds are positioning cooler minimum temperatures as the leading market outcome for Madrid on August 29.** Multiple forecasts indicate overnight lows potentially dipping to 13–15°C (around 55–59°F), well below the 18.2°C historical average low for the date, with some model runs suggesting even lower values near or below 11°C amid dry conditions and minimal cloud cover. Recent August 2026 observations have already shown cooler nights than early-month peaks, consistent with a shift toward more stable high-pressure influence. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability on 11°C or below, incorporates this model guidance and the potential for stronger cooling than typical late-summer norms, though official agency runs like the Met Office currently lean closer to 18°C. Updated ECMWF or AEMET guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely drive further market movement before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
11°C or below 88%
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
88%
12°C
28%
13°C
31%
14°C
27%
15°C
49%
16°C
49%
17°C
49%
18°C
39%
19°C
8%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
11°C or below 88%
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
88%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$0 Vol.
31%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
8%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and radiational cooling under northerly or light winds are positioning cooler minimum temperatures as the leading market outcome for Madrid on August 29.** Multiple forecasts indicate overnight lows potentially dipping to 13–15°C (around 55–59°F), well below the 18.2°C historical average low for the date, with some model runs suggesting even lower values near or below 11°C amid dry conditions and minimal cloud cover. Recent August 2026 observations have already shown cooler nights than early-month peaks, consistent with a shift toward more stable high-pressure influence. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability on 11°C or below, incorporates this model guidance and the potential for stronger cooling than typical late-summer norms, though official agency runs like the Met Office currently lean closer to 18°C. Updated ECMWF or AEMET guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely drive further market movement before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and radiational cooling under northerly or light winds are positioning cooler minimum temperatures as the leading market outcome for Madrid on August 29.** Multiple forecasts indicate overnight lows potentially dipping to 13–15°C (around 55–59°F), well below the 18.2°C historical average low for the date, with some model runs suggesting even lower values near or below 11°C amid dry conditions and minimal cloud cover. Recent August 2026 observations have already shown cooler nights than early-month peaks, consistent with a shift toward more stable high-pressure influence. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability on 11°C or below, incorporates this model guidance and the potential for stronger cooling than typical late-summer norms, though official agency runs like the Met Office currently lean closer to 18°C. Updated ECMWF or AEMET guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely drive further market movement before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies and radiational cooling under northerly or light winds are positioning cooler minimum temperatures as the leading market outcome for Madrid on August 29.** Multiple forecasts indicate overnight lows potentially dipping to 13–15°C (around 55–59°F), well below the 18.2°C historical average low for the date, with some model runs suggesting even lower values near or below 11°C amid dry conditions and minimal cloud cover. Recent August 2026 observations have already shown cooler nights than early-month peaks, consistent with a shift toward more stable high-pressure influence. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability on 11°C or below, incorporates this model guidance and the potential for stronger cooling than typical late-summer norms, though official agency runs like the Met Office currently lean closer to 18°C. Updated ECMWF or AEMET guidance in the next 24–48 hours will likely drive further market movement before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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