Recent forecasts indicate a cooler air mass advecting into central Spain, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17–19°C minima for Madrid on August 27. Model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and BBC points to overnight lows near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and possible early sprinkles, though ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that modulates radiative cooling rates. Climatologically, late-August Madrid lows average 16–17°C, so this setup represents a modest negative anomaly; traders weigh these dynamics against urban heat-island effects and resolution based on official station readings, with fresh model runs expected to refine the range before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 27?
13°C or below 64%
23°C or higher 50%
15°C 49%
21°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
13°C or below
64%
14°C
19%
15°C
49%
16°C
25%
17°C
29%
18°C
31%
19°C
26%
20°C
41%
21°C
49%
22°C
8%
23°C or higher
50%
13°C or below 64%
23°C or higher 50%
15°C 49%
21°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
64%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
31%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
41%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
8%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts indicate a cooler air mass advecting into central Spain, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17–19°C minima for Madrid on August 27. Model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and BBC points to overnight lows near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and possible early sprinkles, though ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that modulates radiative cooling rates. Climatologically, late-August Madrid lows average 16–17°C, so this setup represents a modest negative anomaly; traders weigh these dynamics against urban heat-island effects and resolution based on official station readings, with fresh model runs expected to refine the range before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts indicate a cooler air mass advecting into central Spain, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17–19°C minima for Madrid on August 27. Model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and BBC points to overnight lows near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and possible early sprinkles, though ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that modulates radiative cooling rates. Climatologically, late-August Madrid lows average 16–17°C, so this setup represents a modest negative anomaly; traders weigh these dynamics against urban heat-island effects and resolution based on official station readings, with fresh model runs expected to refine the range before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts indicate a cooler air mass advecting into central Spain, driving the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 17–19°C minima for Madrid on August 27. Model consensus from sources such as the Met Office and BBC points to overnight lows near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and possible early sprinkles, though ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing that modulates radiative cooling rates. Climatologically, late-August Madrid lows average 16–17°C, so this setup represents a modest negative anomaly; traders weigh these dynamics against urban heat-island effects and resolution based on official station readings, with fresh model runs expected to refine the range before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions