Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET points to a lingering polar air mass and associated cold front keeping overnight lows in São Paulo near 11–13 °C on September 8, following the 10.1 °C minimum recorded the previous night—the coldest early-September reading in four years. Light winds, high humidity near 95 %, and variable cloud cover will moderate radiative cooling, while any brief clear spells could allow the temperature to dip toward the lower end of that range. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts remain tight but show sensitivity to exact timing of wind shifts and precipitation, explaining the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 11–13 °C. Historical September minima average near 15 °C, underscoring the current anomaly. Updated guidance overnight will clarify whether the low settles at 11 °C or edges toward 13 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 8?
12°C 35%
11°C 31%
13°C 27%
10°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
7°C or below
6%
8°C
3%
9°C
25%
10°C
26%
11°C
31%
12°C
35%
13°C
27%
14°C
25%
15°C
5%
16°C
13%
17°C or higher
1%
12°C 35%
11°C 31%
13°C 27%
10°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
7°C or below
$12 Vol.
6%
8°C
$12 Vol.
3%
9°C
$0 Vol.
25%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
31%
12°C
$6 Vol.
35%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
25%
15°C
$12 Vol.
5%
16°C
$12 Vol.
13%
17°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET points to a lingering polar air mass and associated cold front keeping overnight lows in São Paulo near 11–13 °C on September 8, following the 10.1 °C minimum recorded the previous night—the coldest early-September reading in four years. Light winds, high humidity near 95 %, and variable cloud cover will moderate radiative cooling, while any brief clear spells could allow the temperature to dip toward the lower end of that range. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts remain tight but show sensitivity to exact timing of wind shifts and precipitation, explaining the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 11–13 °C. Historical September minima average near 15 °C, underscoring the current anomaly. Updated guidance overnight will clarify whether the low settles at 11 °C or edges toward 13 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$68End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET points to a lingering polar air mass and associated cold front keeping overnight lows in São Paulo near 11–13 °C on September 8, following the 10.1 °C minimum recorded the previous night—the coldest early-September reading in four years. Light winds, high humidity near 95 %, and variable cloud cover will moderate radiative cooling, while any brief clear spells could allow the temperature to dip toward the lower end of that range. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts remain tight but show sensitivity to exact timing of wind shifts and precipitation, explaining the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 11–13 °C. Historical September minima average near 15 °C, underscoring the current anomaly. Updated guidance overnight will clarify whether the low settles at 11 °C or edges toward 13 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies like INMET points to a lingering polar air mass and associated cold front keeping overnight lows in São Paulo near 11–13 °C on September 8, following the 10.1 °C minimum recorded the previous night—the coldest early-September reading in four years. Light winds, high humidity near 95 %, and variable cloud cover will moderate radiative cooling, while any brief clear spells could allow the temperature to dip toward the lower end of that range. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts remain tight but show sensitivity to exact timing of wind shifts and precipitation, explaining the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 11–13 °C. Historical September minima average near 15 °C, underscoring the current anomaly. Updated guidance overnight will clarify whether the low settles at 11 °C or edges toward 13 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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