Skip to main content
icon for MA-05 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·US Election

MA-05 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MA-05 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·US Election

MA-05 Democratic Primary Winner

Katherine Clark 98.8%

Jonathan Paz 1.0%

Tarik Samman <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Katherine Clark 98.8%

Jonathan Paz 1.0%

Tarik Samman <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Katherine Clark

$1,867 Vol.

99%

Jonathan Paz

$334 Vol.

1%

Tarik Samman

$117 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Katherine Clark holds a commanding position in the MA-05 Democratic primary due to her status as the longtime incumbent with overwhelming financial resources, including over $4 million raised compared to under $60,000 for each challenger. Jonathan Paz and Tarik Samman, the only declared opponents on the September 1, 2026 ballot, lack broad name recognition, major endorsements, or polling traction in a district rated solidly Democratic. Recent campaign finance reports and candidate filings confirm Clark's structural advantages, with labor union support further bolstering her position. Scenarios that could realistically shift odds remain limited this close to the primary, such as late-breaking controversies or unusually high challenger turnout, though historical patterns for well-funded incumbents in safe seats suggest continuity.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$2,318
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 7:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Katherine Clark holds a commanding position in the MA-05 Democratic primary due to her status as the longtime incumbent with overwhelming financial resources, including over $4 million raised compared to under $60,000 for each challenger. Jonathan Paz and Tarik Samman, the only declared opponents on the September 1, 2026 ballot, lack broad name recognition, major endorsements, or polling traction in a district rated solidly Democratic. Recent campaign finance reports and candidate filings confirm Clark's structural advantages, with labor union support further bolstering her position. Scenarios that could realistically shift odds remain limited this close to the primary, such as late-breaking controversies or unusually high challenger turnout, though historical patterns for well-funded incumbents in safe seats suggest continuity.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$2,318
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 27, 2026, 7:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

icon for Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

89%
icon for Will Jake Auchincloss be the MA-04 Democratic nominee?

Will Jake Auchincloss be the MA-04 Democratic nominee?

98%
icon for Will Richard Neal be the MA-01 Democratic nominee?

Will Richard Neal be the MA-01 Democratic nominee?

81%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"MA-05 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Katherine Clark" at 99%, followed by "Jonathan Paz" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MA-05 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MA-05 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MA-05 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Katherine Clark" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jonathan Paz" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MA-05 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.