Recent polling from institutes including IPPI, Véritas, and IPSensus shows a fragmented field for Maranhão’s two Senate seats, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) frequently leading or near the top while a cluster of candidates—André Fufuca (PP), Weverton Rocha (PDT), Lahesio Bonfim (Novo), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—remain within margins of error for the second position. Late-August surveys indicate combined first- and second-choice support for these contenders stays tightly bunched between roughly 16% and 23%, reflecting name recognition, regional alliances, and cross-endorsements from gubernatorial tickets. High undecided shares and the absence of a dominant second-place frontrunner have kept implied probabilities for second place compressed among the top group, with traders assigning Fufuca the narrowest lead. Further separation would likely require late-campaign events such as stronger party coordination, turnout shifts in key municipalities, or clearer polling trends closer to October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMaranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place
Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place
Fufuca 30%
Roseana Sarney 26%
Weverton Rocha 16%
Eliziane Gama 10.4%
$14,614 Vol.
$14,614 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fufuca
30%
Roseana Sarney
26%
Weverton Rocha
16%
Eliziane Gama
10%
Lahesio Bonfim
13%
Raimundo Moreira
4%
Enilton Rodrigues
3%
Wilson Leite
1%
Dr. Hilton Gonçalo
1%
Simplício Araújo
<1%
Cidônio Gonçalves
<1%
Fufuca 30%
Roseana Sarney 26%
Weverton Rocha 16%
Eliziane Gama 10.4%
$14,614 Vol.
$14,614 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fufuca
$1,611 Vol.
30%
Roseana Sarney
$1,793 Vol.
26%
Weverton Rocha
$7,110 Vol.
16%
Eliziane Gama
$562 Vol.
10%
Lahesio Bonfim
$761 Vol.
13%
Raimundo Moreira
$430 Vol.
4%
Enilton Rodrigues
$482 Vol.
3%
Wilson Leite
$442 Vol.
1%
Dr. Hilton Gonçalo
$422 Vol.
1%
Simplício Araújo
$567 Vol.
<1%
Cidônio Gonçalves
$436 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes including IPPI, Véritas, and IPSensus shows a fragmented field for Maranhão’s two Senate seats, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) frequently leading or near the top while a cluster of candidates—André Fufuca (PP), Weverton Rocha (PDT), Lahesio Bonfim (Novo), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—remain within margins of error for the second position. Late-August surveys indicate combined first- and second-choice support for these contenders stays tightly bunched between roughly 16% and 23%, reflecting name recognition, regional alliances, and cross-endorsements from gubernatorial tickets. High undecided shares and the absence of a dominant second-place frontrunner have kept implied probabilities for second place compressed among the top group, with traders assigning Fufuca the narrowest lead. Further separation would likely require late-campaign events such as stronger party coordination, turnout shifts in key municipalities, or clearer polling trends closer to October.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Volume
$14,614End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes including IPPI, Véritas, and IPSensus shows a fragmented field for Maranhão’s two Senate seats, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) frequently leading or near the top while a cluster of candidates—André Fufuca (PP), Weverton Rocha (PDT), Lahesio Bonfim (Novo), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—remain within margins of error for the second position. Late-August surveys indicate combined first- and second-choice support for these contenders stays tightly bunched between roughly 16% and 23%, reflecting name recognition, regional alliances, and cross-endorsements from gubernatorial tickets. High undecided shares and the absence of a dominant second-place frontrunner have kept implied probabilities for second place compressed among the top group, with traders assigning Fufuca the narrowest lead. Further separation would likely require late-campaign events such as stronger party coordination, turnout shifts in key municipalities, or clearer polling trends closer to October.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$14,614End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from institutes including IPPI, Véritas, and IPSensus shows a fragmented field for Maranhão’s two Senate seats, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) frequently leading or near the top while a cluster of candidates—André Fufuca (PP), Weverton Rocha (PDT), Lahesio Bonfim (Novo), and Eliziane Gama (PT)—remain within margins of error for the second position. Late-August surveys indicate combined first- and second-choice support for these contenders stays tightly bunched between roughly 16% and 23%, reflecting name recognition, regional alliances, and cross-endorsements from gubernatorial tickets. High undecided shares and the absence of a dominant second-place frontrunner have kept implied probabilities for second place compressed among the top group, with traders assigning Fufuca the narrowest lead. Further separation would likely require late-campaign events such as stronger party coordination, turnout shifts in key municipalities, or clearer polling trends closer to October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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