Morena's commanding position in trader consensus for the 2027 Mexican legislative election stems from consistent national polling leads of 30 points or more over the nearest opposition parties, reflecting durable voter identification with the ruling party and its coalition allies PVEM and PT ahead of the June 6 contest for all 500 Chamber of Deputies seats. Recent surveys through mid-2026 show Morena holding 38–49% support while PAN, PRI, and MC remain in single or low double digits, consistent with the party's 2024 performance and the structural advantages of incumbency. Opposition fragmentation after the prior cycle has further limited unified challenges. Late developments such as a sharp economic downturn, major corruption revelations tied to the administration, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited near-term momentum for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMorena 92.6%
PAN 7.2%
PRI <1%
MC <1%
$100,147 Vol.
$100,147 Vol.
Jun 5, 2027
Morena
93%
PAN
7%
PRI
1%
MC
<1%
PT
<1%
PVEM
<1%
Morena 92.6%
PAN 7.2%
PRI <1%
MC <1%
$100,147 Vol.
$100,147 Vol.
Jun 5, 2027
Morena
$55,412 Vol.
93%
PAN
$16,839 Vol.
7%
PRI
$7,219 Vol.
1%
MC
$8,408 Vol.
<1%
PT
$6,128 Vol.
<1%
PVEM
$6,141 Vol.
<1%
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).Morena's commanding position in trader consensus for the 2027 Mexican legislative election stems from consistent national polling leads of 30 points or more over the nearest opposition parties, reflecting durable voter identification with the ruling party and its coalition allies PVEM and PT ahead of the June 6 contest for all 500 Chamber of Deputies seats. Recent surveys through mid-2026 show Morena holding 38–49% support while PAN, PRI, and MC remain in single or low double digits, consistent with the party's 2024 performance and the structural advantages of incumbency. Opposition fragmentation after the prior cycle has further limited unified challenges. Late developments such as a sharp economic downturn, major corruption revelations tied to the administration, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited near-term momentum for such shifts.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$100,147End Date
Jun 6, 2027Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).Morena's commanding position in trader consensus for the 2027 Mexican legislative election stems from consistent national polling leads of 30 points or more over the nearest opposition parties, reflecting durable voter identification with the ruling party and its coalition allies PVEM and PT ahead of the June 6 contest for all 500 Chamber of Deputies seats. Recent surveys through mid-2026 show Morena holding 38–49% support while PAN, PRI, and MC remain in single or low double digits, consistent with the party's 2024 performance and the structural advantages of incumbency. Opposition fragmentation after the prior cycle has further limited unified challenges. Late developments such as a sharp economic downturn, major corruption revelations tied to the administration, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited near-term momentum for such shifts.
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Volume
$100,147End Date
Jun 6, 2027Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Morena's commanding position in trader consensus for the 2027 Mexican legislative election stems from consistent national polling leads of 30 points or more over the nearest opposition parties, reflecting durable voter identification with the ruling party and its coalition allies PVEM and PT ahead of the June 6 contest for all 500 Chamber of Deputies seats. Recent surveys through mid-2026 show Morena holding 38–49% support while PAN, PRI, and MC remain in single or low double digits, consistent with the party's 2024 performance and the structural advantages of incumbency. Opposition fragmentation after the prior cycle has further limited unified challenges. Late developments such as a sharp economic downturn, major corruption revelations tied to the administration, or unusually high opposition turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited near-term momentum for such shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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