Morocco's September 2026 legislative elections, set for September 23, feature a tight contest for third place among the main parties in the House of Representatives. The incumbent RNI-led coalition with PAM and PI (Istiqlal) anchors current positioning, with RNI holding the highest trader-implied probability for third at 47.5 percent and PI at 29.5 percent, while UC, PAM, and smaller parties trail. Low expected turnout and broad voter skepticism limit differentiation among parties that share overlapping regional and urban support bases. Coalition stability and the absence of major recent polling shifts or candidate-list surprises have kept probabilities compressed, though late economic data, policy announcements, or turnout patterns in the final month could separate the contenders ahead of voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRNI 48%
PI 30%
UC 12.2%
PAM 7%
$26,409 Vol.
$26,409 Vol.

RNI
48%

PI
30%

UC
12%

PAM
7%

PJD
4%

MP
<1%

PPS
<1%

USFP
<1%
RNI 48%
PI 30%
UC 12.2%
PAM 7%
$26,409 Vol.
$26,409 Vol.

RNI
48%

PI
30%

UC
12%

PAM
7%

PJD
4%

MP
<1%

PPS
<1%

USFP
<1%
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-most number of seats in the House of Representatives of Morocco as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Moroccan government, including the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.elections.ma/).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-most number of seats in the House of Representatives of Morocco as a result of this election.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Moroccan government, including the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.elections.ma/).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Morocco's September 2026 legislative elections, set for September 23, feature a tight contest for third place among the main parties in the House of Representatives. The incumbent RNI-led coalition with PAM and PI (Istiqlal) anchors current positioning, with RNI holding the highest trader-implied probability for third at 47.5 percent and PI at 29.5 percent, while UC, PAM, and smaller parties trail. Low expected turnout and broad voter skepticism limit differentiation among parties that share overlapping regional and urban support bases. Coalition stability and the absence of major recent polling shifts or candidate-list surprises have kept probabilities compressed, though late economic data, policy announcements, or turnout patterns in the final month could separate the contenders ahead of voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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