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icon for Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

icon for Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

Tom Cruise 29%

Matt Damon 29%

Andrew Scott 16%

John Malkovich 10.1%

Polymarket

$90,990 Vol.

Tom Cruise 29%

Matt Damon 29%

Andrew Scott 16%

John Malkovich 10.1%

Polymarket

$90,990 Vol.

icon for Tom Cruise

Tom Cruise

$8,678 Vol.

29%

icon for Matt Damon

Matt Damon

$28,736 Vol.

29%

icon for Andrew Scott

Andrew Scott

$8,455 Vol.

16%

icon for John Malkovich

John Malkovich

$4,165 Vol.

10%

icon for Robert Pattinson

Robert Pattinson

$2,797 Vol.

9%

icon for Sebastian Stan

Sebastian Stan

$2,432 Vol.

3%

icon for Ryan Gosling

Ryan Gosling

$4,364 Vol.

2%

icon for Timothée Chalamet

Timothée Chalamet

$2,881 Vol.

2%

icon for Sam Rockwell

Sam Rockwell

$2,404 Vol.

1%

icon for Javier Bardem

Javier Bardem

$2,449 Vol.

1%

icon for Brad Pitt

Brad Pitt

$7,828 Vol.

1%

icon for Jeremy Strong

Jeremy Strong

$2,651 Vol.

1%

icon for Pedro Pascal

Pedro Pascal

$2,873 Vol.

1%

icon for Josh O'Connor

Josh O'Connor

$1,349 Vol.

<1%

icon for Adam Driver

Adam Driver

$2,209 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jaafar Jackson

Jaafar Jackson

$2,729 Vol.

<1%

icon for John Turturro

John Turturro

$1,389 Vol.

<1%

icon for Robert Aramayo

Robert Aramayo

$2,600 Vol.

<1%

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Early buzz for the 2027 Oscars Best Actor race centers on Matt Damon in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Tom Cruise in Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger, with both holding nearly identical market-implied odds around 28-29% amid a wide-open field.** Damon benefits from the epic’s massive July opening and strong voter screenings highlighting his physically demanding lead performance, a narrative boost for an actor still seeking his first competitive Oscar. Cruise’s campaign gains traction from the October release of his satirical turn, capitalizing on long-standing industry goodwill for a serious showcase. Other notables like Andrew Scott, John Malkovich, and Ryan Gosling trail at single-digit or lower implied probabilities, reflecting the absence of dominant precursors this early. The category’s competitiveness stems from multiple high-profile releases still unfolding, with guild nominations and critics’ awards in late 2026 likely to shift momentum before nominations voting begins in January 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$90,990
End Date
Mar 14, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Early buzz for the 2027 Oscars Best Actor race centers on Matt Damon in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Tom Cruise in Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger, with both holding nearly identical market-implied odds around 28-29% amid a wide-open field.** Damon benefits from the epic’s massive July opening and strong voter screenings highlighting his physically demanding lead performance, a narrative boost for an actor still seeking his first competitive Oscar. Cruise’s campaign gains traction from the October release of his satirical turn, capitalizing on long-standing industry goodwill for a serious showcase. Other notables like Andrew Scott, John Malkovich, and Ryan Gosling trail at single-digit or lower implied probabilities, reflecting the absence of dominant precursors this early. The category’s competitiveness stems from multiple high-profile releases still unfolding, with guild nominations and critics’ awards in late 2026 likely to shift momentum before nominations voting begins in January 2027.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$90,990
End Date
Mar 14, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?

Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?

26%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Cruise" at 28%, followed by "Matt Damon" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" has generated $91K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" is "Tom Cruise" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Damon" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.