Sergio Moro's commanding position in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race stems from his formal PL nomination, active campaign events, and consistent leads in recent polls such as those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas, where he registers 37-46% first-round support and wins projected runoffs by wide margins. These results reflect voter consolidation around his profile as a former federal judge and senator, bolstered by endorsements including from Flávio Bolsonaro, amid a fragmented field. Trailing candidates like Requião Filho, Sandro Alex, Beto Richa, and Enio Verri register far lower shares, consistent with the wide pricing gap to Moro at 82% implied probability while others sit at single digits or flat 50% levels reflecting limited viability. The October 4 first-round vote and potential October 25 runoff remain key resolution triggers, with ongoing polling and party dynamics likely to influence trader adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedParaná Governor Election Winner
Paraná Governor Election Winner
Sergio Moro 82%
Alexandre Curi 6.0%
Beto Richa 3.1%
Enio Verri 3.1%
$54,762 Vol.
$54,762 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Moro
82%
Alexandre Curi
6%
Beto Richa
3%
Enio Verri
3%
Requião Filho
2%
Luiz França
1%
Guto Silva
1%
Rafael Greca
1%
Sergio Moro 82%
Alexandre Curi 6.0%
Beto Richa 3.1%
Enio Verri 3.1%
$54,762 Vol.
$54,762 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Moro
$44,637 Vol.
82%
Alexandre Curi
$484 Vol.
6%
Beto Richa
$371 Vol.
3%
Enio Verri
$309 Vol.
3%
Requião Filho
$7,444 Vol.
2%
Luiz França
$327 Vol.
1%
Guto Silva
$720 Vol.
1%
Rafael Greca
$470 Vol.
1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro's commanding position in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race stems from his formal PL nomination, active campaign events, and consistent leads in recent polls such as those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas, where he registers 37-46% first-round support and wins projected runoffs by wide margins. These results reflect voter consolidation around his profile as a former federal judge and senator, bolstered by endorsements including from Flávio Bolsonaro, amid a fragmented field. Trailing candidates like Requião Filho, Sandro Alex, Beto Richa, and Enio Verri register far lower shares, consistent with the wide pricing gap to Moro at 82% implied probability while others sit at single digits or flat 50% levels reflecting limited viability. The October 4 first-round vote and potential October 25 runoff remain key resolution triggers, with ongoing polling and party dynamics likely to influence trader adjustments.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$54,762End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro's commanding position in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race stems from his formal PL nomination, active campaign events, and consistent leads in recent polls such as those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas, where he registers 37-46% first-round support and wins projected runoffs by wide margins. These results reflect voter consolidation around his profile as a former federal judge and senator, bolstered by endorsements including from Flávio Bolsonaro, amid a fragmented field. Trailing candidates like Requião Filho, Sandro Alex, Beto Richa, and Enio Verri register far lower shares, consistent with the wide pricing gap to Moro at 82% implied probability while others sit at single digits or flat 50% levels reflecting limited viability. The October 4 first-round vote and potential October 25 runoff remain key resolution triggers, with ongoing polling and party dynamics likely to influence trader adjustments.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$54,762End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sergio Moro's commanding position in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race stems from his formal PL nomination, active campaign events, and consistent leads in recent polls such as those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas, where he registers 37-46% first-round support and wins projected runoffs by wide margins. These results reflect voter consolidation around his profile as a former federal judge and senator, bolstered by endorsements including from Flávio Bolsonaro, amid a fragmented field. Trailing candidates like Requião Filho, Sandro Alex, Beto Richa, and Enio Verri register far lower shares, consistent with the wide pricing gap to Moro at 82% implied probability while others sit at single digits or flat 50% levels reflecting limited viability. The October 4 first-round vote and potential October 25 runoff remain key resolution triggers, with ongoing polling and party dynamics likely to influence trader adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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