Rafael Fonteles, the incumbent PT governor of Piauí seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, holds a dominant position in trader assessments driven by consistent polling leads. A recent Datafolha survey showed him at 56% against 21% for main rival Joel Rodrigues of the PP, pointing to a possible first-round victory. His advantage stems from established state-level visibility, alliances within the PT base, and ongoing focus on infrastructure and federal ties. The wide margin leaves limited room for shifts unless opposition forces consolidate effectively or unexpected economic or campaign developments emerge before voting. Current market pricing reflects this established frontrunner dynamic among Brazilian state gubernatorial races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRafael Fonteles 95%
Ravenna da Inclusão 1.4%
Professor Jurity <1%
Elizeu Aguiar <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Rafael Fonteles
95%
Ravenna da Inclusão
1%
Professor Jurity
1%
Elizeu Aguiar
1%
Geraldo Carvalho
<1%
Gustavo Feijó
<1%
Joel Rodrigues
<1%
Lourdes Melo
<1%
Professor Gisvaldo
<1%
Santiago Belizário
<1%
Dra. Lúcia Santos
<1%
Rafael Fonteles 95%
Ravenna da Inclusão 1.4%
Professor Jurity <1%
Elizeu Aguiar <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Rafael Fonteles
$1,301 Vol.
95%
Ravenna da Inclusão
$222 Vol.
1%
Professor Jurity
$222 Vol.
1%
Elizeu Aguiar
$222 Vol.
1%
Geraldo Carvalho
$232 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Feijó
$263 Vol.
<1%
Joel Rodrigues
$232 Vol.
<1%
Lourdes Melo
$296 Vol.
<1%
Professor Gisvaldo
$216 Vol.
<1%
Santiago Belizário
$216 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Lúcia Santos
$216 Vol.
<1%
The Piauí gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rafael Fonteles, the incumbent PT governor of Piauí seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, holds a dominant position in trader assessments driven by consistent polling leads. A recent Datafolha survey showed him at 56% against 21% for main rival Joel Rodrigues of the PP, pointing to a possible first-round victory. His advantage stems from established state-level visibility, alliances within the PT base, and ongoing focus on infrastructure and federal ties. The wide margin leaves limited room for shifts unless opposition forces consolidate effectively or unexpected economic or campaign developments emerge before voting. Current market pricing reflects this established frontrunner dynamic among Brazilian state gubernatorial races.
The Piauí gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ET
Volume
$3,636End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Piauí gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rafael Fonteles, the incumbent PT governor of Piauí seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, holds a dominant position in trader assessments driven by consistent polling leads. A recent Datafolha survey showed him at 56% against 21% for main rival Joel Rodrigues of the PP, pointing to a possible first-round victory. His advantage stems from established state-level visibility, alliances within the PT base, and ongoing focus on infrastructure and federal ties. The wide margin leaves limited room for shifts unless opposition forces consolidate effectively or unexpected economic or campaign developments emerge before voting. Current market pricing reflects this established frontrunner dynamic among Brazilian state gubernatorial races.
The Piauí gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$3,636End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rafael Fonteles, the incumbent PT governor of Piauí seeking re-election on October 4, 2026, holds a dominant position in trader assessments driven by consistent polling leads. A recent Datafolha survey showed him at 56% against 21% for main rival Joel Rodrigues of the PP, pointing to a possible first-round victory. His advantage stems from established state-level visibility, alliances within the PT base, and ongoing focus on infrastructure and federal ties. The wide margin leaves limited room for shifts unless opposition forces consolidate effectively or unexpected economic or campaign developments emerge before voting. Current market pricing reflects this established frontrunner dynamic among Brazilian state gubernatorial races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions