Recent polling from mid-August shows Ciro Nogueira (PP) leading vote intentions for one of Piauí’s two Senate seats at 23.5% in the GP1 survey, ahead of Marcelo Castro (MDB) at 11.3% and Júlio César (PSD) at 7.6%, though earlier Atlas data indicated a technical three-way tie. Roughly twenty candidates are competing in a fragmented field, where incumbency advantages, party structures, and local alliances keep first-place probabilities tightly contested between Nogueira and Castro according to trader pricing. Poll-to-poll variance and limited differentiation among voters sustain the even-money dynamic. New surveys, intensified campaign activity, or shifts in second-preference consolidation before the October vote could widen the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPiauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Piauí Senate Election: 1st Place
Ciro Nogueira 48%
Marcelo Castro 35%
Julio Cesar 3.5%
Alexandre Mariano <1%
$28,164 Vol.
$28,164 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ciro Nogueira
48%
Marcelo Castro
35%
Julio Cesar
12%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Tiago Junqueira
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Ciro Nogueira 48%
Marcelo Castro 35%
Julio Cesar 3.5%
Alexandre Mariano <1%
$28,164 Vol.
$28,164 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ciro Nogueira
$4,975 Vol.
48%
Marcelo Castro
$6,207 Vol.
35%
Julio Cesar
$1,947 Vol.
12%
Alexandre Mariano
$892 Vol.
<1%
Antônio Barros
$875 Vol.
<1%
Antônio José Lira
$892 Vol.
<1%
Cloves José
$832 Vol.
<1%
Danniel Rocha
$812 Vol.
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
$879 Vol.
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
$892 Vol.
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
$812 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Lopes
$812 Vol.
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
$945 Vol.
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
$1,105 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Sena
$782 Vol.
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
$882 Vol.
<1%
Tiago Junqueira
$765 Vol.
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
$927 Vol.
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
$870 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from mid-August shows Ciro Nogueira (PP) leading vote intentions for one of Piauí’s two Senate seats at 23.5% in the GP1 survey, ahead of Marcelo Castro (MDB) at 11.3% and Júlio César (PSD) at 7.6%, though earlier Atlas data indicated a technical three-way tie. Roughly twenty candidates are competing in a fragmented field, where incumbency advantages, party structures, and local alliances keep first-place probabilities tightly contested between Nogueira and Castro according to trader pricing. Poll-to-poll variance and limited differentiation among voters sustain the even-money dynamic. New surveys, intensified campaign activity, or shifts in second-preference consolidation before the October vote could widen the gap.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
Volume
$28,164End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from mid-August shows Ciro Nogueira (PP) leading vote intentions for one of Piauí’s two Senate seats at 23.5% in the GP1 survey, ahead of Marcelo Castro (MDB) at 11.3% and Júlio César (PSD) at 7.6%, though earlier Atlas data indicated a technical three-way tie. Roughly twenty candidates are competing in a fragmented field, where incumbency advantages, party structures, and local alliances keep first-place probabilities tightly contested between Nogueira and Castro according to trader pricing. Poll-to-poll variance and limited differentiation among voters sustain the even-money dynamic. New surveys, intensified campaign activity, or shifts in second-preference consolidation before the October vote could widen the gap.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$28,164End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-August shows Ciro Nogueira (PP) leading vote intentions for one of Piauí’s two Senate seats at 23.5% in the GP1 survey, ahead of Marcelo Castro (MDB) at 11.3% and Júlio César (PSD) at 7.6%, though earlier Atlas data indicated a technical three-way tie. Roughly twenty candidates are competing in a fragmented field, where incumbency advantages, party structures, and local alliances keep first-place probabilities tightly contested between Nogueira and Castro according to trader pricing. Poll-to-poll variance and limited differentiation among voters sustain the even-money dynamic. New surveys, intensified campaign activity, or shifts in second-preference consolidation before the October vote could widen the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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