Recent polling from mid-August shows Elaine Pelino leading Aaron Guckian by roughly 20 points among likely Republican primary voters, with many still undecided, which has reinforced trader consensus around her frontrunner status ahead of the September 9 primary. Pelino, a first-time candidate emphasizing spending restraint, affordability, law enforcement, and education reform, has appealed to the party base by positioning herself as a more conservative alternative to Guckian, the state GOP-endorsed moderate with prior statewide experience. Other declared candidates trail far behind in visibility and support. The market could shift if late undecided voters consolidate behind Guckian, turnout patterns favor established party networks, or new endorsements or debates alter momentum before primary day.